It is expected that sugarcane and pulses may become the victim in terms of acreage. According to traders and commodity analysts, the country could see a second continuous year of higher output of maize. Interestingly, a recent acreage data from the Ministry of Agriculture as on June 20 for kharif crop of maize have shown a downtrend at 356,000 hectares against 476,000 lakh hectares last year.
Market sources said that the real picture will emerge only by the first week of July.
They added that sowing can even go up to the first week of August, as there are different varieties of maize with a crop cycle of 85 days to 120 days.This will result in arrival of fresh crop extending from September-end to well into November.
Bhagaban Behera, commodity analyst at Agrwatch Commodities, said, "Strong export and domestic demand pushed up prices amid lower arrival in the producing centres. Moreover, use of hybrid seeds too will play an important role in increasing the output."
At present, the MSP of the commodity is Rs 630 a quintal. The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) has recommended a support price of Rs 840.
Rajendra Shah, a Mumbai-based sugar trader, said, "The crop shift from sugarcane to maize is mainly happening in the border area of Maharashtra and Karnataka. This shift may bring down the Maharashtra sugarcane production by one-third."
The state is among the top two sugar producing states along with Uttar Pradesh. Remuneration has been less in sugar and farmers have not yet been paid for their produce, added Shah.
Starch manufactures too are hoping for a good maize crop. According to Vishal Majithia, managing director, Shahyadri Starch, "Crop output is likely to improve. But the weather situation will play an important role. Till a fortnight back, rains were normal but the situation has changed now. This could delay the sowing and arrivals."
Though marketmen are anticipating a higher maize output, the weather will be the deciding factor for the final output. Kharif contributes over 80 per cent of the entire country's maize production. Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra are the major kharif producing regions.
