Indices end flat on F&O expiry; Sensex down 25 pts, Nifty below 10,400

All that happened in the markets today.

8:46 AM

Bonds drop, call rates turn lower on selling pressure from banks

Government bonds (G-Secs) dropped on sustained selling pressure from banks and corporates and the overnight call money rates also turned lower due to lack of demand from borrowing banks amid comfortable liquidity in the banking sytem. The 7.17% 10-year benchmark bond maturing in 2028 dipped to Rs 96.30 from Rs 96.58, while its yield edged up to 7.71% from 7.67%. READ MORE

8:43 AM

Key stocks for trade on Thursday

Stock: COAL INDIA
Recommendation: Buy
CMP : Rs 310.45
 

Breakout from the pennant formation on the weekly scale exhibits strength. The pattern indicates a price target close to 335, a breakout above the recent consolidation zone above 312 could also accelerate momentum & hence trading longs could be initiated with a stop below 302.30 for a target upto 335.

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8:41 AM

Stock exchanges try to assuage concerns after MSCI warning

Domestic stock exchanges on Wednesday tried to assuage concerns over the fallout of the move to snap with their foreign counterparts. “This is to reassure all stakeholders that the Indian exchanges will work with them to facilitate an orderly transition that is not disruptive to the markets and stakeholders. This engagement with various stakeholders will continue in the coming weeks to address any concerns,” said the exchanges in a joint statement. READ MORE

8:40 AM

Nifty outlook for the day by Tradebulls Securities

The ongoing momentum seems diminishing as the index approaches its previous swing low around 10,270. The level also coincides with the upward sloping trendline support placed near 10,230 zone; with the daily RSI placed near the oversold zone it’s advisable to reduce shorts & await for a reversal signal on the daily scale. Options data indicates a range of 10,500-10,200 for the expiry & hence any unwinding pressure in confluence with the price action sustaining above 10,400 could push the action towards the upper bound of the range.

 

Traders are advised to exercise caution while trading on the short side from hereon & should maintain a trail stop strategy for their existing shorts with stop above 10,400.

8:38 AM

UBS on Indian economy

Our scenario analysis suggests that on the upside, India's historical experience does suggest that it could return to having medium-term potential growth in the 8.0-8.5% region through a combination of higher investment growth (12%YoY) and total factor productivity TFP (4.5%). A likely downside scenario, associated with low TFP (2.5%) and investment growth (4%YoY), would take potential growth to around 5.0-5.5%.

8:37 AM

Markets on Wednesday

 

S&P BSE Sensex	33,844.86		0.42%
Nifty 50	10,397.45		0.36%
S&P BSE 200	4,544.90		0.24%
Nifty 500	9,167.60		0.18%
S&P BSE Mid-Cap	16,411.46		-0.05%
S&P BSE Small-Cap	17,800.14		-0.17%

8:36 AM

Nomura on Indian economy

Indicators suggest non-agricultural GDP growth continues to recover, led mainly by higher investment and external demand, while consumption demand is mixed, possibly due to weak monsoon rains and higher fuel costs. Demand-side indicators are performing better than supply-side ones, and the economy performed better in January than in Q4 across most indicators, suggesting growth momentum remains strong. However, agricultural output has been hit by weak monsoons, which could partly blunt the pick-up in non-agriculture GDP growth in the near term.

We expect GDP growth to rebound sharply to 7.5% in in 2018 from 6.2% in 2017, due to ongoing remonetisation, fading of GST-related disruptions and stronger global demand. Due to base effects, we expect growth in H1 2018 (7.8%) to be higher than in H2 2018 (7.1%).

 

8:35 AM

Scam-hit PNB to move out of Nifty Midcap 100 index

The scam-hit Punjab National Bank (PNB) will move out of the NSE's Nifty Midcap 100 index from April. READ MORE

8:35 AM

Rollover stats

Ahead of the expiry session, Nifty closed on an indecisive note. A higher opening soon paved way for selling that has become a feature of the last few sessions. Rollovers also point towards a bleak picture going into the expiry day. 

 

Market-wide rollovers stands at 54% which is a tad lower compared to the average rollovers of 56% (last three series). Market wide futures open interest (OI) around Rs 1.67tn as compared to Rs 2tn on the D-1 of January expiry. Average roll levels across stock futures were ~50-52bps (cost to long rollers). Low levels have been a concern especially for the FII short rollers. 

 

Nifty futures rollovers stand at 39% which is lower compared to the average rollovers of 46% (last three series). Nifty futures OI stands at Rs 292bn (~28.1mn shares) as against the OI of INR 408bn (~36.8mn shares) on D-1 of the last series. Nifty futures roll levels (cost to long rollers) was ~21-22bps (screen levels of 21-22 points). As we have been mentioning in our expiry week notes, lower roll levels are a major cause of concern. With a long March expiry, short roll arbitrageurs are seeking relatively higher levels to rollover the positions. 

(Source: Edelweiss)

 

8:32 AM

Wall Street

On Wednesday, the Dow had ended down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.55% and the Nasdaq 0.22%.

8:32 AM

Index watch

IISL has announced the Semi-Annual review for rebalancing the Nifty Index. Index changes will be effective from 02-Apr-18 and adjustments will be done on close of 28-Mar-18.

 

 

8:29 AM

SGX Nifty

The SGX Nifty was trading at 10,335.50, down 0.45% from the previous close.

8:25 AM

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