Monsoon break to aid N-E, south regions

A break in the monsoons is likely from around July 17 over the whole of northern plains, the central India and western coast of south peninsula. However, the rainfall is likely to increase in north-eastern states, the Himalayan foothills and south-eastern peninsula.

According to the Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the conditions are now becoming favourable for a possible break in the monsoon rainfall. How long will the break continue cannot yet be perceived.

"This break should be viewed as a welcome development because it follows a prolonged active monsoon phase (since its revival from June 16) and is needed now. Besides, during this break phase, the areas in the north-east and south, such as coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema, which had remained deficient in rainfall so far, will get good showers," says NCMRWF director Akhilesh Gupta.

He also pointed out that the overall rainfall deficiency in the country as a whole, since the beginning of the monsoon season on June 1, has already been wiped out. In fact, the total rainfall till today is now estimated at 1 per cent above the normal for this period.

"Nothing can yet be said about how long the break in monsoon continue. It will depend on the developments in the monsoon circulation over the Bay of Bengal. Generally, such breaks last for about a week, but there is no hard and fast rule about it", Gupta pointed out.

The NCMRWF has predicted that the upper air cyclonic circulation over west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas that persists till today is likely to become insignificant in next two days.

But the ongoing interaction between the monsoon system and the western disturbance lying over Rajasthan and neighborhood, which has caused good showers in the north-west India in past few days, is likely to continue till around July 14. This will bring more rains in Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana till around July 14.

Fairly widespread rainfall is expected also over the east and north-east India in the next four days. Subsequently, north-eastern states and West Bengal are likely to experience enhanced rainfall.

In the central region, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha in the next 24 hours before the rains abate due to the monsoon break.

In the south, widespread rainfall is expected in the coastal Karnataka and Kerala in the next two days. Enhanced rainfall is predicted for south-east peninsular India, including Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and south-coastal Andhra Pradesh in the next three to four days.

Elsewhere, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Gujarat and Rajasthan are likely to receive isolated to scattered rains in next two to three days.

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Rain, Rain go away...

• his monsoon break should be viewed as a welcome development because it follows a prolonged active monsoon phase (since its revival from June 16)
• Besides, during this break phase, the areas in the north-east and south, such as coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema, which had remained deficient in rainfall so far, are likely to get good showers
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