Monsoon woes: Is India staring at higher food price-led inflation?

However, if monsoon progress in August and is geographically more even, Nomura believes Kharif sowing could still pick up going ahead, which in turn could keep food prices and inflation under check.

India may be staring at higher food price-led inflation if the monsoon activity does not pick up pace and the spatial distribution of the rains does not improve soon, suggests a report from Nomura.

As July – the key month for Kharif or summer sowing – comes to a close, monsoons, Nomura said, are currently tracking at 11 per cent above normal. However, rains have been geographically uneven: concentrated in the central and South India, trailing in the Northwest and a steep 15 per cent below-normal in the East and the Northeast.

If monsoon rains progress in August and are