The total global production of natural rubber (NR) in 2010 by nine member nations of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) will increase 6.3 per cent to reach 9.47 million tonnes (mt). According to data presented at the Global Annual Rubber Conference 2010 held here, the total output of the commodity in 2009 was 9.66 mt of which the contribution of ANRPC was 8.91 mt.
All the leading NR producing countries are expected to have increased production this year with a whopping rise of 43.9 per cent expected in Cambodia. A 16.7 per cent increase is expected in Malaysia, followed by 8.3 per cent in Vietnam and 7.2 per cent in India. Production in India is expected to increase to 879,000 tonnes from 820,000 tonnes in 2009.
But the outlook for the next year is rather pessimistic as production is likely to fall marginally or remain same as in 2010.
According to a paper presented by Jom Jacob, senior economist, ANRPC, reasons behind such a scenario are unfavourable age structure of trees, changing geographical composition of yielding area, labour shortage, unskilled tapping and climate change in producing areas. He said that replanting of trees which has been postponed for the last two years is likely to be undertaken in 2011. A very large area planted during 1980-81 is expected to have reached the uprooting age. Only limited area will be newly opened for tapping.
A large number of farmers, especially in countries like Malaysia, are shifting from rubber to palm oil as the government’s policies there promote palm oil farming. There is less scope for planting rubber in traditional areas where the yield is high due to limited availability of land. New planting is possible in non-traditional areas where the productivity is low.
ANRPC estimates that 2.55 million hectares will be newly opened for tapping during 2012-17. This is 36 per cent of the present yielding area (7.04 hectares) in the entire ANRPC. It is expected that yielding area will considerably expand in countries like Thailand, Vietnam and China.
This may lead to a shift in the ranking of countries in NR supply by 2015. Vietnam is likely to be at the third position surpassing Malaysia. China will also emerge as a leading contributor . At present, Thailand leads global production with 32.7 per cent (3.16 mt) of the total global supply followed by Indonesia with 25.2 per cent.
Consumption
Global consumption of NR will touch 14.2 mt by 2020, from 10.2 mt estimated for the current year. Stephen V Evans, secretary general, International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), Singapore said the consumption of synthetic rubber (SR) will increase to 16.9 mt from 14 mt at present.
He attributed the increase to the growth in tyre sales. World over, the sale of passenger car tyres is expected to rise 10.4 per cent and commercial vehicle tyres by 13.5 per cent this year.
The average annual growth in the sale of passenger car tyres during the next five years will be 5.1 per cent and that of commercial vehicle tyres will be 7.28 per cent, according to IRSG estimates.
According to Rajiv Budhraja, director general of the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (Atma), the demand for truck and bus tyres in India is expected to grow by 10 per cent, passenger car radials by 16 per cent and light truck tyres 11 per cent by 2013-14.
China is in the driving seat for future automobile and tyre production. Its four-wheeler tyre production is six times than that of India and its tyre export is 25 times than that of India.
