Lower production in Maharashtra may be compensated by Andhra, Gujarat and MP.
Despite uneven distribution of rainfall this monsoon season, oilseed output is likely to set a new record this year. Experts estimate that for the first time, output may surpass the benchmark 30 million tonnes (mt) at 30.25 mt this year – a rise of nine per cent as against last year’s output of 27.80 mt.
Consequently, the edible oil output is likely to rise by 24 per cent to 9.2 mt in this crushing season (November to October 2011-12).
In spite of predicting a marginal five per cent decline in long-term average rainfall for the entire year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the rainfall has been normal till date. The impact of less rainfall, however, could be seen in the coming months.
The main worry: Despite the normalcy in rainfall at present, there has been uneveness in certain crop-denominated areas. “States like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where oilseed sowing is heavily dependent upon rain, has been adversely impacted due to uneven distribution of rainfall, said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Care Ratings.
However, going ahead, things could be better. Ajit Tyagi, director general of IMD has shown satisfaction over the monsoon progress. In a recent interview, Tyagi said the first month of the monsoon period – June, ended on a positive note, with more than 10 per cent above normal rainfall at 209 mm.
The initial rainfall covered most of the country, except for Gujarat and West Rajasthan. These are the two states where a large chunk of area is dedicated to oilseeds. “Gujarat, the largest oilseed producing state in the country, is a major cause of worry where rainfall has been deficient. But the rainfall is likely to revive in the coming days in the state,” said B V Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, the apex body of oilseed extractors, adding that the situation will be clear with the progress of rainfall in August.
Soybean planting, which is the largest oilseed crop, starts in May and continues until July 15. The late sowing continues until the third week of July. But, in case of monsoon deficiency, the re-sowing takes place in some of the states even by the end of July or early August.
According to Rajesh Agrawal, coordinator, Soybean Processors Association, soybean planting covered only 500,000 hectares (ha) until June 30 in Maharashtra as against the annualised target of 2.6 million ha. With July 15 just around the corner, the balance 2.1 million ha looks unlikely. But the deficiency in Maharashtra will be made up by Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and part of Rajasthan.
Tyagi forecasts also support this point. IMD hopes the deficit will be met in the coming days, helping in re-plantation of soybean. Satyanarayan Agarwal, an industry veteran, said oilseed sowing has been affected adversely due to flooding in some area and deficiency of rainfall on the others.
