With the kharif sowing coming to an end, the overall crop scenario is getting clearer. It is almost certain now that paddy will gain appreciably in area and possibly also in production, despite the cumulative monsoon rainfall being 1 per cent short of normal till August 24.
Worries about the output of oilseeds have now given way to cautious optimism. So is the case with cotton, though pulses and coarse cereals, other than maize, are still a matter of concern.
Though the total water stock in the major reservoirs is above normal, it is still short of last year’s level by 16 per cent. The shortfall is confined almost entirely to dams in the southern half of the country.
The overall water storage is particularly worrying in the dams located in the river basins of Godavari (40 per cent below normal) and Tapi (22 per cent). A shortage of between 10 and 15 per cent is also reported in the Mahi and Kutch basins.
| WATER STORAGE IN MAJOR RIVER BASINS AS ON AUGUST 21 (in billion cubic metres) | ||||
| Name of basin | This year |
Last year | Normal | % departure from normal |
| Ganga | 13.41 | 11.98 | 9.98 | 34.30 |
| Indus | 13.00 | 9.99 | 9.41 | 38.04 |
| Narmada | 7.51 | 7.47 | 5.21 | 44.27 |
| Tapi | 3.49 | 5.54 | 4.47 | -21.88 |
| Mahi | 1.89 | 3.35 | 2.15 | -11.99 |
| Sabarmati | 0.24 | 0.60 | 0.25 | -1.59 |
| Rivers of Kutch | 0.28 | 0.74 | 0.33 | -15.82 |
| Godavari | 4.09 | 7.61 | 6.76 | -39.50 |
| Krishna | 19.00 | 28.23 | 19.69 | -3.54 |
| West flowing rivers of south | 8.29 | 11.53 | 8.68 | -4.56 |
| Mahanadi & east flowing rivers | 9.55 | 9.04 | 7.67 | 24.61 |
| Cauveri & east flowing rivers | 5.36 | 7.04 | 4.26 | 25.73 |
| Total | 86.16 | 103.17 | 78.92 | 9.17 |
| Source: Central Water Commission | ||||
The India Meteorological Department has predicted a decrease in the intensity of rainfall after August 31 in the north-east as well as Bihar, which is currently beseiged by floods. However, more rains, including heavy downpours, have been projected for Bihar till August 31, which may further impede the ongoing rescue and relief operations in the affected areas.
The weather office has also predicted isolated heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu and south Karnataka in the next two days. Subdued rainfall is projected for central India.
The reassuring news on the crop front is that the main kharif food crop, rice, is in good shape despite some interrupted sowing, especially in the interior southern peninsula, due to prolonged break in the monsoon rainfall in July.
Paddy has already been planted on over 2 million hectares, or 7 per cent more acreage than last season. The figure is likely to go up further as the sowing is still in progress.
The area under rice has expanded significantly, by some 45 per cent, in Uttar Pradesh as well as Tamil Nadu. Higher coverage, by around 17 per cent, is also reported from Karnataka, notably coastal Karnataka, and Rajasthan.
The rice surplus states of Punjab and Haryana, too, have reported 2 to 3 per cent higher acreage. Significantly, the use of improved seeds is believed to have expanded this year, strengthening optimism about higher rice production.
However, course cereals, barring maize, may witness significant drop in output. Luckily, the area under maize, in demand from the poultry and starch industries, has crossed normal levels, though it is still around 7 per cent short of last year’s corresponding level. But the rainfall pattern since the third week of July has been favourable for maize. Jowar, bajra and other coarse grains are in for major drop in output as the overall area under them is down by over 10 per cent.
The production of oilseeds is now expected to be normal, if not higher, as much of the shortfall in the planted area has been made up in the past month. In fact, the latest reports with the agriculture ministry show that the total area under oilseeds crossed the last year’s 16.75 million hectares and stood at 16.87 million hectares on August 21.
While the acreage under soyabean is up by 8 per cent at 9.41 million hectares, against last year’s corresponding position of 8.68 million hectares, that under groundnut has inched closer to last year’s level of 5 million hectares.
There is little relief in pulses, as acreage has shrunk by about 1.7 million hectares, or 15 per cent. Chances of recovery are bleak at this stage. Some key producing states, such as Maharashtra and Karnataka, have reported 30 to 40 per cent reduction in area due to moisture paucity during sowing.
Rajasthan, another major pulses growing state, has, on the other hand, witnessed a 12 per cent increase in area, mainly due to diversion of bajra acreage to pulses such as moong and moth. But, this may not offset the anticipated loss in output elsewhere.
Among commercial crops, cotton sowing has undergone a dramatic improvement. The shortfall in acreage has considerably narrowed and larger use of transgenic Bt-cotton hybrid seeds is expected to result in higher yields.
