Overall deficiency down to 3% thanks to late withdrawal

MONSOON WATCH

Monsoon came late in most part of the country. But its withdrawal is also delayed except from the western-most Rajasthan. Normally, it should have receded from most of the north-western India by now.

But this year, rains are predicted to enhance once again in this region around September 24 to 26. Elsewhere, too, the monsoon is likely to remain active for at least next two to three days.

This augurs well for overall kharif production despite localised crop damage in areas lashed with torrential showers. The late rains are deemed a boon for the next rabi planting as well.

Horticultural crops, too, stand to benefit despite some damage by excessive rains in isolated pockets. These belated showers are, of course, not deemed good for cotton, especially in the areas where the crop is in the maturing stages or is ready for picking.

Indeed the September rains have not only brought down the overall deficit in cumulative season rainfall from around nine per cent at one stage to less than four per cent now but has also pushed up the water level in reservoirs to 15 per cent above the past ten year's average level.

Nearly half the dams are almost full and reporting enhanced power generation. Adequate storage is also an indication of copious availability of water for irrigation and power for agriculture, industry and other sectors in the months to come.

As a result, the overall inflation (based on wholesale prices) has dropped to around three per cent from 8.15 per cent around this time last year. In fact, the average price of wheat in the New Delhi market (as monitored by the agriculture ministry) is nearly 5.6 per cent lower this year compared with the last year.

Similarly, the prices of most edible oils and even some pulses, like tur or arhar, are ruling lower than the last year's level. However, onion prices are up 55 per cent and that of potato nearly 10 per cent due to lower supplies. Vegetable prices, too, are generally relatively higher.

According to the Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Wednesday's depression over Vidarbha has moved away and weakened into a well market low pressure area over north Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and neighbourhood.

This system is likely to move further away and cause widespread rainfall, including some very heavy showers, in Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and south Gujarat in the next two days. Subsequently, east Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh are also likely to receive widespread rains.

A western disturbance is approaching north-western India and is expected to interact with the prevailing depression there to boost rainfall activity over the region during September 24 to 26. Another weather system is anticipated to result in scattered rains in the east and north-eastern parts of the country.

The southern peninsula, too, is likely to experience fairly widespread rains in the next two days before the rainfall activity begins to decrease, the NCMRWF has predicted.

The reports from states indicate that paddy, the major kharif foodgrain crop, is generally in a satisfactory shape in most part of the country. In Tamil Nadu, nursery planting for the Samba paddy crop is in progress. The farmers have been advised to opt for the recommended varieties like CR 1009 and ADT-44 (both long-duration varieties) and CO-43, IR-20 or ADT-38 (all medium range varieties).

The growers of cotton, soyabean and pulses have been advised to ensure adequate drainage in the fields to ward off wilting of plants due to water-logging.

The lands where kharif crops could not be planted for various reasons can now be brought under crop cover. In the north-western regions, the late rains have created conditions suitable for planting toria oilseed.

The farmers have, however, been advised to go in for quicker maturing varieties to get good yield as also to vacate the land in time for sowing next wheat or other rabi crop.In the east, notably Bihar, West Bengal and Assam, farmers can grow a number of short-duration vegetables like tomato, brinjal, chilli, knol-khol, carrot, radish, cauliflower, turnip, spinach, methi and beet root.

However, emergence of pests and diseases have been reported from some areas though the overall situation is still not out of control anywhere. In Maharashtra, sugarcane crop is reported to have been attacked by white woolly aphid in Nasik and Kolhapur belt and army-worm along the banks of the Bhima river. Infestation of white fly, jassids and some other pests and leaf curl viral disease has been reported on cotton in Punjab.

In Maharashtra, jassid and aphid attack has been reported from some areas.The total water storage in the country's 76 major reservoirs was estimated on September 16 at 102.45 billion cubic metres (BCM). This is about 24 per cent more than the water storage at this time last year and 15 per cent more than past ten year's average level.