Overseas bourses take cue from India markets

Often, in the absence of a visible domestic trigger, the behaviour of Indian stock markets is explained as a result of global developments, mainly the rise or fall of overseas markets. Curiously, it will not be far-fetched to state the contrary, that the global stock exchanges follow the Indian markets' cue.

A study of the movements of world markets since May 2006 by Mumbai-based Man Financial shows that the S&P CNX Nifty recorded its high ahead of all major international indices. It recorded its intermediate top during February 6-12 this year and all-time intra-day high of 4,245.30 on February 8.

This was followed by all major international indices recording their respective highs. The only exception has been the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong, which recorded its high on January 24 this year.

The study brings out that the benchmark indices of the BRIC countries "" Brazil's Bovespa, Russia's Moscow Times, India's S&P CNX Nifty and China's Shanghai Composite "" bottomed out on same day, June 14, last year. However, on February 8, 2007, the Nifty recorded its historical high and began a correction, while the other key BRIC indices continued to rise and reacted much later. China's Shanghai Composite moved up for seven months, reached its high on February 27 and retracted. Moscow Times, though, failed to cross its May 2006 high of 22,485 and retracted after touching 22,462 on February 26. Brazil's Bovespa followed Nifty and touched its all-time high of 46752.13 on February 22 and retracted.

The Nifty, in reaching its high, led the way for many developed markets. The followers included Dow Jones, NASDAQ, FTSE, Australia ordinary, NIKKEI-225, CAC-40 and DAX. Even the widely-followed S&P 500 followed Nifty's cue in reaching its high. The Dow Jones not only recorded its bottom on July 17, 2006, it also lagged the Nifty by topping out at 12,795.85 on February 20. The NASDAQ followed the Nifty to the top as well as the bottom.

The FTSE-100 lagged the Nifty while reaching its highs, though it hit the bottom a day earlier, on June 13. Australia- ordinaries began its fall after touching new high on February 23 while its low was on June 14.

The NIKKEI-225 reached its high on February 22, France CAC-40 on February 26 and DAX on February 26. These indices bottomed out on June 14. Although the Hang Seng recorded its high on January 24, its fall started after Nifty's topped out.

The story repeats across other equity markets with the benchmark indices of Canada, Italy, Belgium and Pakistan recording their respective highs after the Nifty.