"Since Indian prices are the most competitive, demand from West Asia and the European countries is shifting to India," said Sudha Acharya, analyst with Agriwatch Commodities. Bangladesh and Singapore are the other significant importers.
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| Market estimates have put total production this season at 2.5-2.8 million bags (each 55 kg), though commodity experts have put the figure at above 3 million bags. Last year, the production was estimated at 1.8-2 million bags.
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| Faiyaz Hudani, analyst at Kotak Commodities, said, "Arrivals, which were at 7,000-8,000 bags a day last week, have now increased to 15,000-16,000 bags. Offtake at 24,000 bags has outpaced arrivals."
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| Increased arrivals have failed to rein in prices and the market is expected to remain firm, he added. Reports suggest a lower output in Syria and Turkey (the other major producers) this year due to shifting of land to other crops.
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| This has resulted in higher prices in the region. Prices in India are ruling around $2,700 a tonne, lesser than the international rates of around $3,000.
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| According to commodity experts, the July futures still has room to go up further by Rs 300 a quintal. In case of the September futures (getting higher trader participation), the market can go all the way to around Rs 13,000, they said.
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| Dilip Patel, an Unjha-based trader, said, "We expect cumin prices to go up as export demand is very strong. Hedgers and stockists have entered the market." According to him, around 35 per cent of the produce is still with the farmers. The overall stock in the country is estimated around 3-4 lakh bags, he said.
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| However, experts have put a note of caution ahead. According to them, the market will remain firm till overseas demand persists followed by a correction, sooner or later. |
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