Pakistan's heavy monsoon may hurt cotton crop

Pakistan's monsoon is expected to be heavier than normal and could damage the cotton crop while boosting prospects for a bigger harvest of sugarcane and rice.

Rainfall between July and September is expected to be above the average 137.5 millimeters, Akram Anjum, a director at the Pakistan Meteorological Department in Islamabad, said in a phone interview.

Heavier-than-usual rains increase humidity which leads to attacks by pests such as the white fly, American bollworm and spotted bollworm, Anjum said.

The government forecast in April that cotton output may increase 8.7 per cent, in the year starting July 1, to 14.14 million bales from 13 million bales last year. Pakistan, the world's fourth-largest cotton grower, cultivates the crop from April to June and harvests start in September.

"We will need to educate farmers to use pesticides to avoid any damage to the crop,'' Sajid Mahmood, a researcher at Pakistan Central Cotton Committee, said in a phone interview from Multan, in the province of Punjab. Farmers in Punjab produce 80 per cent of the country's total cotton production.

South Asia's second-biggest economy plans to boost annual cotton output to 21 million bales by 2015 to help cut costs for domestic textile makers, who compete with rivals in China and India. Textile shipments account for more than 60 per cent of the country's total exports.

"Sugarcane and rice crops need as much water as possible,'' said Anjum. "Barring floods, above-average rains are good for these crops.''

The government in April set a target to produce 54 million tons of sugarcane this year, from 52.9 million last year. Farmers may produce 5.72 million tons of rice in 2008, up from 5.4 million last year.

Pakistan needs the monsoon to fill water reservoirs and help irrigate crops. A below-normal monsoon in 2004 caused a drought, hurting cotton and wheat production.

A tropical cyclone and storms have killed more than 300 people in Pakistan's coastal areas in the provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan, in the past two weeks.