Poor rainfall likely to hit guarseed output by 20%

Failure of the second spell of monsoon in Rajasthan is set to hit the production of guarseed for 2007-2008, reducing the estimates by at least 20 per cent.

Guarseed has already entered into the bull run and marketmen believe that prices will stay high. Until recently, traders and commodity analysts estimated that production would be over one crore bags of one quintal each. "We had anticipated bumper crop this season. But now the output will be 75-80 lakh bags," said Navratan Daga, a Bikaner-based trader.

Commodity analysts said sowing season would get over soon and around 30-35 per cent sowing of guarseed could not be done in Rajasthan. So there were no chance of any spurt in output. They added that it would be close to last season's output. In 2006-2007, guarseed production stood at 75 lakh bags.

Reports also suggest that in Rajasthan, which contributes over 70 per cent of country's guarseed crop, farmers have shifted to other crops such as bajra and pulses. "This could further reduce the output," said Tanmay Kumar Dipak, analyst with Agriwatch Commodities. Gujarat and Haryana are other two leading producer states in the country. Due to heavy rains in Gujarat, output is likely to be the same as last year. In case of Haryana, there is an increase of around 20 per cent in acreage for guarseed. "There could be 2-3 per cent increase in yield from Haryana," said Daga.

In Rajasthan, sowing is completed in the irrigated areas, mainly in Sriganganagar-Haryana belt. However, in Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Bikaner,Churu and Hanumangarh, sowing is dull.

First fortnight of August, the month which mirrors the expected overall guarseed market, marks the end of sowing. Present weather situation in Rajasthan indicates that the state will not have rains for more than a week. "Even if it rains in a week, chances of sowing is minimal," said Daga.

Guarseed market, slated to touch as low as Rs 1,600 a quintal last month, has bounced back. The lowest level will be Rs 1,700 a quintal now, said traders. Analysts also indicated that the upward rally in the commodity is to stay. The new crop is expected to arrive by October.

On Tuesday, the near-month contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) closed at Rs 1,821 a quintal, up 8 per cent, against a week-ago close of Rs 1,686 a quintal.

Similarly, the September contract jumped to Rs 1,865 a quintal from Rs 1,723 during the same period.