Poor rains no cause for concern

MONSOON WATCH

Though the monsoon is passing through a weak phase, which is forecast to last for 4 to 5 days more, the area already seeded with kharif crops is about a million hectares more compared with the last year's corresponding level.

Only sowing of pulses and sugarcane is lagging behind the last year's position by 16 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. Planting is still continuing throughout the country and the condition of the standing crops is reported to be good in most places.

Water storage in most reservoirs is much above the normal, with five of them already reporting full storage, boding well for hydel power production, irrigation and other water-based economic activities. The total water storage in 78 major dams is 42 per cent higher than the last year's and a whopping 93 per cent above the past 10 years' average level for this time of the season.

However, if the rains do not pick up during the next week in the country's central region, the most affected by the subdued monsoon, there might be some anxiety over the fate of the freshly planted rainfed crops. But the chances of this occurrence are slim as the monsoon prediction models indicate the formation of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal around August 4, which might trigger the revival of the monsoon.

In any case, the weak monsoon phase is not as dreadful as a total break in the monsoon. The weak phase usually results in shifting the rainfall activity towards the north-east and fringes of the country's landmass along the coasts. The present week phase is marked by the axis of the monsoon trough receding closer to the foothills of the Himalayas. This, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is likely to cause widespread rainfall in the Gangetic plains and north-eastern states in the next 4 to 5 days. Besides, north-west India, Kerala and coastal Karnataka are also likely to experience scattered to fairly widespread rainfall in the next few days. Only the central and adjoining peninsular region would experience subdued rains.

What has facilitated planting of crops and good germination of seed so far is the copious overall seasonal rainfall in all regions of the country, barring the north-east (see table), which was the only region clocking below-normal rainfall till July 18. However, due to the increase in rainfall after that date, much of the deficiency in this region is believed to have been made up.

Thanks to good rainfall, reservoirs are fast filling up. Of the total 78 major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission, 71 had reported above 80 per cent water storage on July 19. Four of these dams had 100 per cent storage. These are Panchet Hill (Jharkhand), Krishna Raja Sagar (Karnataka) and Lower Bhawani and Sholayar (both in Tamil Nadu). Subsequently, on July 20, the Mettur dam in Tamil Nadu also joined this club of over-flowing reservoirs.

Only three reservoirs, Vanivilas Sagar (Karnataka), Rihand (Uttar Pradesh) and Bargi (Madhya Pradesh), had below 30 per cent water storage. Just one dam "� Sriramsagar in Andhra Pradesh "� had reported nil live storage.

Reports from the states on the progress of kharif sowing till July 20 indicate that the area covered by pulses, sugarcane and some minor oilseeds (such as sunflower, sesamum and niger) is relatively less this year than last year.

While the decline in the sugarcane acreage is attributed to the fear of cane going abegging in the next crushing season because of heavy inventories with the sugar factories, the area under other crops is said to have been diverted to relatively more lucrative crops.

The sowing of cotton, which gave good returns to the growers in the past two seasons, is ahead of the last year's corresponding level by 13 per cent and that of groundnut and soybean by over 6 per cent. While groundnut has gained additional area in Andhra Pradesh, soybean has been planted on more acreage in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Of the total 72.28 lakh hectares planted under cotton so far, over 24.37 lakh hectares have been sown with the transgenic Bt cotton hybrids.

However, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has cautioned the farmers to remain vigilant against pests. The conditions are favourable for the emergence of pests such as thrips and mealy bugs. In fact, mealy bug insects have already been noticed in hybrid Bt cotton in Punjab and Haryana, though only in patches. The farmers have been advised to spray recommended pesticides (such as Monocrotophos, Acephate and Cypermethrin) to check the spread of these pests.