The markets exhibited a fair deal of volatility in the holiday-shortened week, owing to foreign cues and the March derivatives expiry factor. The markets were open for trading on just three days. The Sensex, after surging to a high of 18,950, tumbled to a low of 18,568---down 382 points from the week's high.
Eventually, the BSE benchmark index rebounded sharply and ended the week at 18,836, a gain of 100 points. In the process, the Sensex ended the month with a loss of 26 points; it ended the first quarter of 2013 with a loss of 591 points. The index, however, ended financial year 2012-13 with a huge gain of 8.2 per cent (1,432 points).
This week, ONGC soared about five per cent to Rs 312. It was the major gainer among Sensex stocks. HDFC Bank, Coal India and HDFC rallied about four per cent each. Hindalco, TCS, NTPC and ICICI Bank were the other prominent gainers. Hero MotoCorp slumped 6.5 per cent to Rs 1,542, while Reliance plunged 4.5 per cent to Rs 774. Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki and Bhel were the other major losers.
According to the yearly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex is seeking support at about 18,500-odd levels, a minor support. Breaching 18,500 would see the index drop to a major support level of 17,800. During the next three months, we could see the BSE benchmark index test 17,800-odd levels, or levels even lower. As of now, the yearly and quarterly charts indicate strong support at 17,800-odd levels for the next quarter. However, a break of 17,800 could trigger a fall to 17,300-odd levels or a crash to 15,200-odd levels. Therefore, 17,800 is likely to be a key level for the next quarter.
According to the monthly charts, the Sensex might seek support at 18,380-18,100 and face resistance at 19,300-19,600. On the upside, the 19,400-level is likely to be a major resistance, according to the yearly and quarterly charts. In the next three months, the BSE index is likely to move in the range of 17,800-19,400.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 114 points. From a high of 5,718, the index slipped to a low of 5,605, finally rebounding and ending at 5,683, a gain of 31 points. As expected, the Nifty broke the 200-day daily moving average (DMA) during the course of the week. However, the index managed to close above the 200-DMA on both occasions.
Given the oversold conditions on the daily charts, a pull-back is likely at the start of the week. On the upside, the Nifty is likely to bounce back to 5,750-odd levels. Sustainability above 5,750 would direct the course of the markets. On the downside, the 5,600-level remains the major support. Below this, the index could slip to 5,570-odd levels---the lower end of the Bollinger Band.
On the weekly charts, the bias continues to remain fairly bearish. Therefore, the current recovery is likely to be more of a relief rally, rather than the start of a fresh rise. On the upside, the index is likely to face considerable resistance at 5,840-odd levels. To sum up, the Sensex has near support at 18,500, below which 17,800 has major support. For the next three months, the BSE index may move in the range of 17,800-19,400. The Nifty's current rise is likely to meet stiff resistance at 5,750 and above 5,840.
