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Pulses led the fall in rabi acreage this season due to a delay in commencement of sowing. The delay itself was a fallout of delayed harvesting of the kharif season crops.
Data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture showed a more than 10% decline in pulses acreage at 14.59 million hectares by February 13, 2015, against 16.22 million ha by the same time last year. The area under gram stood at 8.59 mn ha this year versus 10.23 million ha.
“Chana is expected to trade mixed to higher in the coming days due to low supplies in spot market and new crop to hit the local market in less than a month’s time. Overall sentiment looks positive for Chana amid expected lower output and duty-free export allowed till March 2015,” said Anuj Gupta, an analyst with Angel Commodities.
As per rabi crop data released by Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, total area coverage as of February 17 declined by more than 6% to 61.57 mn ha this year as against 65.69 mn ha.
Wheat's sowing area stood at 30.64 mn ha compared to last year’s 31.53 million ha.
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The area under sowing of total coarse cereals was recorded at 5.77 mn ha this year versus 6.01 mn ha last year.
Meanwhile, rabi season harvest has started for most of the crops with unimpressive initial feedback on quality as well as yield of most of the commodities.
“The output of rabi crop, therefore, is likely to remain lower on account of lower acreage which is set to affect prices of pulses with gram witnessing an upward movement into the positive territory. Given that its weight is quite high in the pulses category, there can be an inflationary pull. Mustard will also exert an upward pressure on prices of oilseeds. However, wheat will still be under control as presently it is in negative territory and could just about turn positive,” said Madan Sabnavis, Economist, Care Ratings.
The first advance estimates suggest total rabi crop output will decline by 11.5% to 129.2 mn tonnes with a 6.26% decline in area under cultivation. Production of cereal is estimated to decline by 11.44% while oilseeds could see a fall of 11.56%. The data shows a decline of 12% for the rabi pulses production.
Chana, which contributes to more than 80% of the total rabi pulses production, is expected to see shortfall of 19.8% with 15.5% fall in acreage covered. Chana farmers this season were discouraged mainly due to low prices through two consecutive seasons. The commodity was traded way below the minimum support price (MSP).
Inadequate soil moisture levels seem to have affected the yield in the major chana producing states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Losses in Madhya Pradesh, however, could be limited due to some beneficial rain for the late sown crops in late January and early February.
“Overall yield is expected to decline in the nation due to significant yield loss expected in Maharashtra, AP and Karnataka. In Rajasthan, it is early to comment on the yield as the crop is still in flowering stage,” said an analyst.
