The performance of the monsoon in the first half of the four-month season, even though not wholly satisfactory, displayed two noticeable trends which can be viewed as redeeming features for agriculture.
1) While the rainfall deficiency continued to rise till the third week of June, the situation improved steadily between the fourth week of June and July-end which is the peak kharif sowing season.
2) The areas which remained most rain deprived in June got relatively higher rainfall in July which reduced the deficiency significantly and facilitated seed planting.
As a result of these factors, though the overall rainfall deficiency remained worrisome at 19 per cent till July-end, it had, dropped significantly from the high of 54 per cent on June 24. This helped in facilitating crop planting as well in replenishing water in major reservoirs which, in turn, should help augment availability of water for irrigation as well as hydel power output.
The total water stock in the 81 reservoirs monitored regularly by the Central Water Commission (CWC) rose by July-end to top not only the last year’s level but also of previous 10 years’ average level. The total stored water was estimated at 52.79 billion cubic metres on July 30 this year, against last year’s 47.14 BCM and last 10 years’ average of 51.9 BCM. The storage was precariously low, merely 16 BCM, on July 9, less than half of the previous year’s 37.3 BCM and normal 32.9 BCM.
Thanks to the unique rainfall pattern, the adverse impact of the poor rain on farm operations and crop growth has been softened to some extent. However, worrying part is that the area planted with paddy has remained about 6.5 million hectares short of last year’s corresponding position by July-end. The reports received by the agriculture ministry indicate that the paddy sowing till July 31 was on 19.13 million hectares, against last year’s 25.67 million hectares. Of course, these numbers would change when more information is available, but the area shortfall in unlikely to be made up fully.
However, the sowing of some other crops, notably coarse cereals and pulses, has been better than last year and that may help to partly set off the likely shortfall in rice production. Coarse cereals and pulses are counted among the foodgrains. The sowing of coarse cereals by July 31 was reckoned at nearly 16 million hectares, against last year’s 15.3 million hectares, and that of pulses at 7.35 million hectares, against last season’s 6.7 million hectares.
Among the coarse cereals, all the major ones such as maize, jowar and bajra, have gained in area. Maize has been planted on 6.29 million hectares, against last year’s 5.92 million hectares. Likewise, bajra has been sown on 6.2 million hectares, against 6 million hectares, and jowar on 2.56 million hectares, against 2.26 million hectares.
In pulses, too, area under most major ones, like arhar (tur), moong and urad, has gone up due to low rainfall as well as the high ruling prices of these pulses. The acreage under tur is estimated at 2.73 million hectares, against 2.2 million hectares last year, and under urad at 1.64 million hectares, against 1.56, and mung 1.92 million hectares, against 1.8 million hectares.
If the rains in the rest of season remain favourable for these crops, the kharif pulses output may rise to being down their prices to some extent.
The low rainfall and availability of transgenic Bt cotton hybrid seeds have prompted farmers to put more area under cotton as well. The crop does not need too much water and Bt seeds keep the pest attack down. The area under cotton is estimated to have expanded to nearly 9 million hectares from last year’s 7.82 million hectares.
However, the prices of cotton may once again drop below the minimum support price at the time of peak harvesting and marketing season, hurting the interests of the growers. The area under oilseeds is reported to have shrunk marginally from last year’s 1.44 million hectares to 1.41 million hectares by July 31. The shortfall is said to be mainly in acreage under groundnut in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan due meagre rainfall in June.
Jute acreage has remained more or less static at last year’s 7 million hectares.
