Rabi may spoil kharif's good show

KHARIF CROP SURVEY: PULSES

Kharif crop on the rise, but inadequate rains may mar rabi's prospects

Production of pulses for the kharif season is expected to improve to around 5 million tonnes due to higher acreage. But inadequate rains in September-October are expected to play spoilsport as far as rabi crop is concerned.

As a result, the overall production in the year is expected to remain at last year's level of 13.5 to 14.5 million tonnes.

This means even after imports, the country will continue to face a shortfall of around 2 million tonnes. The domestic consumption is expected to remain at 17-18 million tonnes.

On the rabi crop front, pulses are at their various stages of sowing. Though it is too early to put an output figure for rabi, trade sources estimate it at 9 million tones, which is lower than last year's.

Price trend
Prices of pulses in the next six months are expected to remain steady. K C Bhartiya, president, Pulses Importers' Association, says though the pulses crop in the kharif season is good, there are doubts as far as the rabi crop is concerned.

The initial slowdown in chana sowing (this constitutes over 60 per cent of the total pulse crop) is worrying the market.

According to Narendra Singh, project co-ordinator (chana), Indian Institute of Pulses Research, there could be a reduction of 15-20 per cent in the acreage under chana in the country in the rabi season.

MSP holds the key
The minimum support price for pulses has been a vital factor in deciding the acreage and, therefore, the output. For instance, the revised MSPs for kharif pulses (urad, moong and tur) this year led to a significant rise in the acreage in the kharif season.

The MSP for urad and moong is Rs 1,700 a quintal whereas that of Tur is Rs 1,550 a quintal. This is apart from the bonus of Rs 40 a quintal.

Commodity analysts say the high prices fetched by the crop last year also contributed to the rise in the cultivation area.

Rabi crop status
The higher MSP for wheat may divert farmers from chana to wheat. "Due to less rainfall, the required moisture in the soil is missing. This may affect rabi pulses output," said K C Bhartiya, president, Pulses Importers' Association. The effect could be lessened if it rains in December, he adds.

According to Suresh Agarwal, chairman, Madhya Pradesh Dal Udyog Mahasangh, the state itself could see a drop of 1 million tonnes in the production from 3 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes. "With the MSP of chana remaining static, who would go for its cultivation at these low levels?" he asks. Can production be increased?

To meet the increasing demand for pulses in the country, the government has plans to raise the production by 2 million tonnes in the next couple of years under the National Food Security Mission.

However, experts say this is a tall order. "If farmers are provided subsidised chemicals, medicines and hybrid seeds, only then pulses can see enhanced production," says Bhartiya.

Others are more pessimistic. According to Agarwal, this isn't possible unless there is a proper irrigation system and adequate supply of electricity.