Monsoon revival during September has made Gujarat farmers hopeful of a fairly good kharif season. This is despite a 30 per cent rainfall deficit this year. The September rain has helped key crops, including groundnut, cotton, castor and cereals, for which sowing had improved last month.
According to the state agriculture department, kharif sowing in Gujarat this year was 91 per cent of the normal, with pulses suffering the most due to erratic monsoon. Sowing of pulses had declined 31 per cent from normal.
“In some parts, delayed monsoon had benefited sowing of crops like guar, cotton, cereals and oilseeds. But, pulses sowing this kharif season was majorly hit. Pulses production will fall and there will be price pressure amid increased dependence on imports,” said Jagdeep Grewal, vice president - commodity at Kunvarji Group in Ahmedabad.
According to him, overall sowing has improved due to good rainfall in key growing regions of the state during September. However, groundnut, cotton and guar suffered some losses due to the delay. “Guar sowing has improved this year, but monsoon in the second half of September has hampered the crop prospects as it requires dry conditions during this period. Similarly, there will be an impact on cotton output, too,” said Grewal.
| SAVING THE SHOW Sowing area of crops in Gujarat during the kharif season (in million hectares) | |||
| Crop | Normal Area | Sowing in kharif ’12 | % of normal |
| Cereal | 1.70 | 1.40 | 82 |
| Pulses | 0.63 | 0.43 | 69 |
| Oilseeds | 2.50 | 2.16 | 86 |
| Cotton | 2.74 | 2.47 | 90 |
| Guarseed | 0.10 | 0.20 | 169 |
| Total | 8.80 | 8.00 | 91 |
The state received 453 mm rainfall in the period from June 1 to September 26, showing 30 per cent lower rain compared to the normal 648 mm, the data provided by the local met office showed.
According to the latest data provided by the Gujarat agriculture department, sowing of cereals declined 18 per cent, at close to 1.4 million hectares (ha) against the normal area of 1.7 million ha. Similarly, area under oilseeds has dropped by about 14 per cent at about 2.16 million ha, from the normal sowing of 2.5 million ha.
The area under cotton has suffered a loss of about 10 per cent at 2.47 million ha against the normal of 2.74 million ha. However, pulses sowing has suffered the most with a drop of about 31 per cent at 428,700 ha this kharif season against the normal 624,500 ha. Overall sowing in the state stood at about eight million ha against the normal 8.8 million ha.
“Kharif pulses production may fall by at least 20 per cent in Gujarat. But overall farm production will meet the previous numbers. There will not be much impact on oilseeds production as well,” said a market source. However, the government has not come up with estimates on overall kharif production.
According to trader sources, cotton prices may firm up in the next year as sowing has dropped and erratic monsoon conditions would also hamper yield, which is likely to remain around 620 kg per ha.
“We expect cotton output in Gujarat to remain in the range of nine million bales, which is about 25 per cent down from previous year’s production of about 12 million bales. This will firm up the prices of the commodity,” said Arun Dalal, a cotton trader and exporter based in Ahmedabad.
Interestingly, there is a sharp increase in the sowing of castor and guarseed this kharif season. Castor sowing has increased by 27 per cent, while the area under guarseed has increased by 69 per cent from the normal 140,900 ha to about 237,500 ha this season.
“More and more farmers have turned to guar sowing as it yielded good returns in the past. But delay in monsoon has adversely affected the crop prospects and we would see lesser production despite sowing being high,” said Grewal.
