Rains may push up wheat output by 3%

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Showers about a fortnight before the flowering of wheat crop are likely to provide better yield, even as farmers expect about 3 per cent additional output this year.

North India, a major wheat-producing hub in the country, witnessed sufficient rains in the last three days, which farmers and traders believe is a boon for wheat. Vimal Sethi of the Amritsar-based Pooja Trading Corporation said the rains were very timely and would increase the output of grains, translating into higher yield.

Although farmers in Punjab have acknowledged the importance of unseasonal rains, they added that the real impact would be clear only after 15 days, when crops would start flowering. Differentiating the importance of rains before and after flowering, Sethi said the grains would be larger in size and healthier with the pre-flowering showers. The scarcity of rains at the time of flowering hampered the size and the weight of grains. Artificial irrigation resulted in average size and weight, he added.

"The rain will result in a drastic decline in temperature, which is good for wheat," said Akshita Bhatt, research analyst at Kotak Commodity Services.

"But, we will have to wait and watch to get a real picture. If rains continue for the next few days, the crop may be damaged," she added.

The sudden rise in temperature between 0.5 and 1 degree due to global warming had forced farmers to anticipate lower output this year a week ago. This had led to rise in prices of wheat across the country. Last February, the sudden rise in temperature had adversely affected the wheat yield in Punjab and farmers were expecting a repeat of the trend. Punjab, which supplied about 57 per cent of its wheat production to the Central pool last year, has sown wheat over 34.50 lakh hectare in this rabi season.

It targets a wheat output of 1.45 crore tonne.

The climate in the current wheat season had, so far, been beneficial for the growth of the crop in most regions. The recent spell of rains would further strengthen the claims of better production this year of 72 mt as compared with 69.35 mt last year, experts opined.

However, the spot market remained volatile on Monday, with wheat prices ruling between Rs 10,500 and Rs 10,800 a tonne in Delhi. The futures prices remained rangebound between Rs 940 and Rs 970 a tonne.

Until the new crop arrives in the market, the price would remain firm irrespective of higher output, a Delhi-based trader said.

The landed price of wheat was still higher and imports were not competitive. Wheat prices in the international market were ruling around $1,015 a tonne, which worked out to Rs 1,150 a quintal, still higher than the domestic prices, trader said.

Meanwhile, even as the government hopes to procure wheat in adequate quantities this time to avoid imports, farmers in Punjab, Haryana and elsewhere are seeking higher prices. The farmers are not satisfied with the Rs 750 a quintal minimum support price (MSP) that has been announced. They argued that while the government imported wheat at prices as high as Rs 1,050-1,100 a quintal why could it not pay similar prices to domestic growers.

Union Food Secretary T Nanda Kumar met state food secretaries of major wheat-growing areas to plan the procurement of wheat. The issue of demand for higher prices came up at the meeting, but no decision was taken, keeping in view the pending Assembly elections in Punjab, sources said.

According to the second advance estimates by the ministry of agriculture, wheat production in the present rabi season is likely to be 72.5 million tonne, against the production of 69.4 million tonne last year. However, the Food Corporation of India managed to procure only 9.2 million tonne last year and the country had to import 5.5 million tonne of wheat.

May delay pulses' arrivals

Delayed winter rains in north India may lead to late arrivals of pulses in the country. The rains, so far, are beneficial to pulses and wheat. But, it could lead to concern if the spell lasts long.

According to commodities analysts, there could be some impact in northern Uttar Pradesh on chana crop, whose arrival normally starts in April. In Rajasthan, rains are beneficial to chana. In Madhya Pradesh, where the chana harvest has started in some centres, its arrival may get delayed. However, analysts ruled out any major setback.

"Water logging and hailstorms may affect crop estimates, but it will not be a very hard hit, as the country has high acreage this year," said an analyst at Agri Watch Commodities.

The Indore-based traders said that there was some damage to the masoor crop. However, the actual damage to the crop in the state is yet to be ascertained.

Masoor in Uttar Pradesh is also likely to have some impact. It is one of the most delicate plants in the pulses category.

Chana prices may slip in the market, as rains would help good yield, said traders.

With rains in the whole of the Gangetic plain, including Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, urad from Orissa and West Bengal, which was expected to arrive by mid-February, is also likely to witness delays.