Rains whet farmers' kharif crop appetite

MONSOON WATCH

Thanks to the normal and well-distributed rainfall this monsoon, kharif production is set to rise perceptibly this year and consequently the net sown area will also increase.

According to figures available with the Krishi Bhawan, kharif crops have already been sown in an additional 3.5 million hectares and the sowing is still continuing. Major acreage gains are reported in pulses (8.8 per cent), oilseeds (8.2 per cent), cotton (6 per cent) and sugarcane (5.6 per cent).

The good production estimates are already making their impact felt in the price trends of different agro-commodities. The prices of moong, for instance, which had touched record highs, have started softening as the area under this crop has gone up by over 34 per cent. Oilseeds like groundnut and soybean, whose acreage has grown 15 per cent and 8 per cent respectively, are also projected to fall.

While cotton prices would be guided more by export prospects and international prices, those of coarse cereals are expected to stabilise as the acreage under maize and jowar has risen by 5.5-6 per cent.

However, the situation regarding paddy, the key kharif staple cereal, is still unclear. Its sowing is lagging by about 1 per cent from last year's level. But, considering good crop stand and availability of water, yields may be relatively higher, partly compensating for the shrinkage in acreage.

The decline in area is confined largely to Karnataka (11 per cent) and Uttar Pradesh (7 per cent), though it has also gone down by about 2 per cent in Punjab. This trend is attributed to diversion of paddy acreage to high value crops in response to demand from retail chains and processing industries.

The total monsoon rainfall, as well as its spread, between June 1 and mid-August has been nearly ideal for agriculture.

Not only has this been about 5 per cent above normal, but it has also distributed rather evenly throughout the country.

Region-wise, the rainfall has been 18 per cent above normal in south peninsular India and 10 per cent above normal in central India. Elsewhere, it has been below normal, but only marginally - about 4 per cent in the north-west and just 1 per cent in the north-east.

Compared to previous years, this year's rainfall is far better in its distribution in terms of both time and space. Seldom in past five years has it been above normal by 5 per cent till mid-August.

Nor has the number of rain-deficient meteorological sub-divisions been so few as this year (just 6 out of total 36 sub-divisions), barring in 2003 when only 5 subdivisions were in the deficient category.

Last year, as many as 14 sub-divisions had received deficient rainfall till this time.

The six meteorological subdivisions reporting rainfall deficiency include western Uttar Pradesh (28 per cent), Punjab (22 per cent), Haryana (21 per cent) Himachal Pradesh (25 per cent), east Madhya Pradesh ( 33 per cent) and Marathwada (29 per cent).

Though some of these regions are agriculturally important, but these also happen to be the states where irrigation is well developed and canal water is available in abundance.

Of course, power supply is reported to be erratic in some areas, forcing farmers to use diesel for running their irrigation pumps.

Though localised damage has been reported due to floods in Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and few other pockets, part of the crop loss might be redeemed by facilitating planting of shorter duration varieties or quick maturing crops like pulses and vegetables after the flood water recedes.

Several varieties of paddy are available for "Sali" rice (late kharif) cultivation. Fortunately, the rains have abated in the catchment areas of many rivers that have been in spate and the flood waters have begun receding.

According to the Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the monsoon is likely to remain subdued over central and north-western plains for next four to five days.

This is because the monsoon trough is likely to shift towards the foothills of the Himalayas, causing fairly widespread rainfall in that region as well as in the north-eastern states.

The ongoing rainfall in Konkan and Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala is projected to reduce in coming days.

The country's overall hydrological scenario remains fairly satisfactory though, for the first time this season, the total water stock of 80 major reservoirs has dropped below the last year's corresponding level by about 10 per cent.

But, it is still some 34 per cent above normal. About 70 of these 80 reservoirs reported above 80 per cent storage on August 16, with as many as 8 being 100 per cent full. Only 2 reservoirs "" Vanivilas Sagar (Karnataka) and Rihand (Uttar Pradesh) "" had below 30 per cent storage and just one - Sriramsagar (Andhra Pradesh) - had no live storage.