Rajan's exit another sign of PM's unwillingness to change things: Jim Rogers

Interview with Chairman of Rogers Holdings and author of Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets

The markets regained lost ground on Monday after a knee-jerk reaction to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan’s decision over the weekend to quit after his term ends. Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and author of Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets, tells Puneet Wadhwa that Prime Minister Narendra Modi knows what needs to be done in India, but is reluctant to do it. The markets, he says, may react negatively in the short run, but will go up once the new governor takes charge and prints more money. Edited excerpts:

What is your interpretation of the sudden exit by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor?

 

This is more of the same from Mr Narendra Modi. He always talks of making changes in India, but he doesn't. He has got his own people and he is also putting more of his people in power. He does not like Raghuram Rajan, who recently quit as the central bank head because he was cleaning up the banks and was against crony capitalism. So, Mr Modi knows what needs to be done in India, but is reluctant to do it. Mr Modi ran his election campaign on the platform that he is going to change and save India. Unfortunately, he hasn't done much of that till now. This (Raghuram Rajan's exit) is just another sign of unwillingness of Mr Modi to change things.

What is the road ahead for the Indian markets and economy in this backdrop?

What will happen now is, the government will appoint somebody who will loosen things up, leave the banks alone, and the stock market will go up as a result. I think the market will move up going ahead given that there will be more money. Though the markets may react negatively in the short-run, they will go up once the new person comes in place of Raghuram Rajan and prints more money.

How are the foreign institutional investors viewing this development? Do you expect foreign flows into India get trimmed?

I don't think it is good for India and good for the world. But I think the move will be good for the market as the money will be loose again - and markets like loose money. I don't like loose money but many investors do.

The development has come ahead of the Brexit vote later this week. Do you expect the markets to remain volatile? Where do you see the Indian rupee in the short-to-medium term?

Most currencies around the world are now going to be in a period where they will get weak and the US dollar (USD) will get strong. Investors are aware of what is happening in the world and are looking for a safe haven. They will flock to the USD - though it is not a safe haven according to me, but people do think it is one. So most currencies around the world will be fairly weak going forward, including the rupee.

What is the likely outcome of the Brexit vote? Will the Brits vote to 'remain in' the European Union (EU)?

Personally, I would vote to remain in, but I don't have a vote there. They may vote to stay in given the assassination of Batley and Spen MP, Jo Cox, last week. If you had asked me earlier, I would have said that the Brits will leave, but I am not so sure now. I have not invested either way - either go or leave. I am just waiting and watching right now. This is not the best way to invest.

How do you see policy-making panning out over the next one year?

As I said, there will be a lot of loose money. So, happy days are here again! The government and the RBI will leave the banks alone. However, India at the end of it will suffer. Though there may be a feel-good factor given the loose money sloshing around, over the long-run, it will not be good for India, and the world.

Would you look to invest in India over the next 6 - 12 months given the developments?

No. I am very worried about the world economy. I am not looking to invest anywhere across the world right now. We will see a lot of turmoil in the world in the next few years. I expect recession in the United States (US), which is going to affect most parts of the world. Japan and Europe are already in recession. I am not looking for investment on the long side anywhere. However, I am all for investment in case I see something. At the moment, I have a few ideas - I may go long on companies in Russia and China. But I am not actively looking for investment opportunities. Most currencies will weaken against the USD, including the rupee.