Ray of hope for southern states

MONSOON WATCH

(in mm)

Deviation
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ActualNormal North-West India274.70169.4062 Central India318.70334.90-5 South Peninsular India182.00268.70-32 North-East India591.60582.502 Country as a whole321.80310.504 Source: IMD  The sowing of kharif crops has already been adversely affected in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra and parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.  As a result, acreage under cotton, groundnut, jowar and sugarcane has been much lower compared to last year.  The water levels in the nation's reservoirs have also not been adequately replenished as yet, though the situation is fairly comfortable in most dams.  However, the re-stocking could improve with the anticipated revival of the monsoon.  According to the weather update issued by the IMD on Thursday, the monsoon trough is expected to begin shifting southwards from tomorrow and a low pressure area is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal around July 27.  This will lead to considerable increase in rainfall in the central and adjoining peninsular regions.  The IMD has also predicted intensification of the ongoing rainfall in coastal Karnataka and Kerala, as well as in the Konkan and Goa during this period.  On the other hand, rainfall in the Indo-Gangetic plains is projected to decline from tomorrow.  The meteorological sub-divisions where cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the monsoon season has been substantially low, causing anxiety about crop sowing, include Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Rayalseema, Coastal Karnataka, North-interior Karnataka, south-interior Karnataka and Kerala.  The crop weather-watch group of the agriculture ministry, in its meeting held on July 18 in Delhi, observed that the adverse impact of the deficient rainfall has led to lower levels of kharif sowing as compared to last year, at least in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra.  Contingency planning in these regions might be required as the farmers might have to switch to substitute crops.  Reports received by the agriculture ministry from the states indicate that the total area sown till July 18 was 50.1 million hectares, which is about 2.7 per cent more than the 48.7 million hectares planted in the same period last year.  The increase is largely due to the better crop coverage in the northern region, especially the irrigated belt in Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and other areas in the Indo-Gangetic plains.  The area under paddy, bajra and soybean has been higher than last year, while that under cotton, jowar and sugarcane has fallen.  Rice has gained some acreage in the eastern states, besides the northern rice bowl of Punjab and Haryana. Pulses have been planted in about the same area as last year though more acreage is expected to be sown after the revival of rain, thanks to the prevailing high prices.  Among oilseeds, which are also anticipated to fetch higher returns for growers this year, the area under soybean has risen till now by about 18 per cent while that under groundnut has dropped by over 11 per cent. The overall area under these crops is up by about 2 per cent till now.  Cotton has been the major victim of rainfall paucity in the present kharif season. The area planted under this crop is down drastically by nearly 35 per cent in Maharashtra, 31 per cent in Andhra Pradesh and 15.4 per cent in Madhya Pradesh. In the northern cotton belt, the sowing is complete though the total area in this region has also declined.  The crop condition is said to be good, with population of major pests still below the threshold level.  Sugarcane sowing has also been poor this year with total area planted under the crop till July 18 being only 4.32 million hectares, down 18 per cent from last year's 5.28 million hectares.  This is attributed partly to rainfall deficiency, but largely to the diversion of area to other crops, which are expected to bring higher returns.