The resurgence of the Chinese economy, along with harsh winter conditions across the country, is likely to push coal prices up in the short term. In addition, the growing demand from power producers in India could support the upward movement of the fossil fuel.
State-owned Coal India’s continued inability to meet the demand has prompted a number of power firms to establish overseas coal linkages. India’s largest power producer, NTPC, may also import coal in order to maintain the desired plant load factor across its facilities.
“Due to the recovery in the Chinese economy, especially in the manufacturing sector, the demand for coal has risen while the cost of mining has also increased. Even though freight costs have fallen, a rise of 7-10 per cent can be expected in spot prices over the next few months,” an analyst with Angel Broking said.
The rising cost of Indonesian coal, a favourite with Indian companies due to its geographical proximity, may also be a sustained phenomenon, with domestic demand already on the rise in the country. In the next couple of years, prices of coal from the country could hit $100 a tonne, a Citigroup study suggested.
Aggressive purchasing by utilities has resulted in spot prices in China’s primary coal port at Quihuangdao to reach the $120-a-tonne mark. Such buying, said the report, had been driven by strong demand and dislocation of local supply due to severe cold and low stockpiles. Consistent purchase from Europe and Korea, which are facing similar climatic conditions, also contributed to pushing the prices upwards.
Australia’s Newcastle port saw prices rise by up to $100 a tonne, the highest since November 2008. Spot prices have surged by 24 per cent at the port over the past five weeks.
With majority of Indian power producers settling for long-term prices, the impact of rocketing prices could have a restricted impact on the country, an analyst said.
“Our estimates are that the prices will remain around $65 a tonne for longer contracts.”
But calendar year contracts have had a good start with international mining firm Xstrata and Japan’s Tokyo Electric settling for prices up to $85 a tonne, which could well become the benchmark price for other calender year contracts.
