Rubber exports seen crossing 60,000 tonne

Exports of natural rubber will cross the 60,000-tonne mark during the current financial year, according to the Rubber Board's latest estimates. Exports may rise to the level of 65,000 tonne given the current growth trend, thanks to the price advantage currently held by the domestic market.

As per the Board's estimation, 57,166 tonne of rubber was exported till February 20, while exports for the last financial year were 46,169 tonne. During April to February 20, 2005, exports stood at 42,853 tonne.

The Rubber Board had initially estimated total exports of 40,000 tonne during 2005-06 as the domestic prices were above the global rates during the first quarter. But then, the trend reversed, and the Board revised its estimates upwards to 55,000 tonne.

As, currently, the domestic prices are lower than the overseas prices by Rs 10 a kg, on an average, exports are on the rise now and expected to cross the 60,000-tonne mark easily. However, exports are not expected to break the earlier record of 75,960 tonne during 2003-04, since exportable surplus is limited in the market.

Given the present domestic consumption trend, total consumption in 2005-06 may rise 5.5 per cent, which means that India will have a production deficit.

Total imports till February 20 were 42,044 tonne, much lower than 57,545 tonne recorded during the same period of 2004-05. Overall imports in the last financial year were 68,718 tonne.

Industry experts said based on the current rate, imports might touch the 45,000-tonne level. The negative growth rate is mainly due to much higher global price tags, they added.

By the beginning of the current financial year, imports of 60,000 tonne were estimated, mainly because of the higher price tags in the domestic market in the April-June period. But owing to the reverse price trend later, the Rubber Board re-estimated imports at 55,000 tonne.

However, the current trend indicates imports could be 45,000 tonne, at the maximum, on account of price disadvantage in the global markets.

Imports had made a quantum jump in 2001-02, touching 49,769 tonne from a quantity of only 8,572 tonne in 2000-01. In the next financial year, it nosedived to 26,229 tonne and then recovered to 43,154 tonne next year.