Rubber output on the way up

The projected fall in the production of natural rubber might be made up for to a large extend by the close of financial year 2008 (FY08), the current production trend indicates.

According to the latest estimates of the Rubber Board, total production during April-December 2007 was 619,850 tonnes, a drop of 6.4 per cent from 662,385 tonnes in the same period of the earlier year.

The shortfall in production between the two periods was narrowed as there was a production rise of 10.3 per cent during April-November 2007. Board sources estimate that as FY08 ends, production might touch almost the same level of FY07.

At the beginning of FY08, the board had targeted a total production of 874,000 tonnes compared with 853,000 tonnes in FY07.

But by October, the board was forced to reassess the production and scaled down the target to 819,000 tonnes.

This happened mainly due to loss in tapping days and heavy rainfall during the monsoon season.

More than three months of the rubber tapping season had been lost thanks to the spread of deadly epidemics like chikungunya.

The board downscaled the estimate for the year by 4 per cent since there had been 17 per cent production loss during the April-September period.

But enthusiasm returned to the plantation sector as prices rose. As an ample proof of this, production during November-December improved by 23,795 tonnes at 221,000 tonne.

The Rubber Board had projected 102,000 tonnes in November and 105,000 tonne in December, but the latest estimate reveals a production of 109,000 tonnes and 112,000 tonnes respectively.

So the shortage till December, 2007 has been contained to 6.4 per cent.

For this month, the board projects 103,000 tonnes, 53,000 tonnes for February while production might touch 48,000 tonnes in March, taking the year's total to 823,850 tonne.

According to leading traders, production would increase sharply on account of higher prices and total annual production might touch the last season's level.

The tapping activity is in full swing as well. Since the price was above Rs 94 a kg in the main production season, growers expect higher prices during the lean production period of February-May.