Domestic economic activity is going to be affected by the magnitude of the second wave with at least 45,000 Covid-related deaths in April 2021. But the global economy is recovering and exports may be the saving grace this financial year.
Base effects are a major problem in judging economic activity. The lockdown started in late March 2020 and continued through most of Q1FY21. The economic activity started to recover only late into Q2FY21. To get a clearer picture, we need to consider earlier data as a benchmark.
The export performance in March 2021 was positive, over both March 2020 (affected by the