Sensex closes at all-time high

STOCK MONITOR

The new year could not have opened in a better fashion for the markets, with the benchmark BSE Sensex closing last week at an all-time high.

The markets started last week on a bright note, with the Sensex gaining nearly 100 points on Monday. The three-session winning streak ended on Tuesday amidst extreme volatility.

The bull run continued mid-week with the markets ending 2003 on a cautiously optimistic note. Hopes of continuing FII buying, and good economic and corporate earnings outlook helped the indices post more gains on the first day of the new year.

The bull run is expected to continue well in the new year, as the Sensex ended the week on its all-time high close of 6026.59, a gain of 327.35 points over its previous weekend close. The broader Nifty closed the week 109 points higher at 1946.05.

HLL
Last week's close (Rs) 215.50
Prev. week's close (Rs) 200.68
Week's high (Rs) 216.43
Week's low (Rs) 202.85
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 118.65
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 70.84
Futures close Jan-2004 (Rs) 217.40
Futures close Feb-2004 (Rs) 219.50
Futures close Mar-2004 (Rs) 0.00
Number of up/down moves 3/2

HLL hit a 52-week high last week, spurred by heavy institutional buying. The counter is said to be attracting buying interest from foreign institutional investors as well as domestic funds.

According to analysts, the recent spurt in buying comes on the reckoning that the FMCG sector will register strong growth in the coming fiscal.

HLL has been among a few big scrips to miss out on the current rally so far. The scrip was undermined because of weak company performance on the back of sluggish rural demand as well as weak urban uptake.

Increased competition from organised and unorganised sectors have also affected the company's fortune, say analysts. However, following a good monsoon last year, an increase in rural spending is expected to rev up the company's fortunes.

ICICI BANK
Last week's close (Rs) 306.70
Prev. week's close (Rs) 283.35
Week's high (Rs) 309.98
Week's low (Rs) 287.18
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 66.88
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 131.08
Futures close Jan-2004 (Rs) 309.75
Futures close Feb-2004 (Rs) 310.00
Futures close Mar-2004 (Rs) 0.00
Number of up/down moves 3/2

ICICI Bank hit an all-time high last week. Strong fund buying, specially FII buying in the recent past has led the counter to surge in recent months.

Analysts are optimistic about the company because of its thrust on retail lending.

There are also talks that the bank will be able to recover bad loans to steel and textile sectors soon as both sectors are doing well. ICICI Bank is one of the biggest players in the retail lending and housing-loan sector apart from auto loans.

TATA MOTORS
Last week's close (Rs) 456.63
Prev. week's close (Rs) 431.23
Week's high (Rs) 460.55
Week's low (Rs) 433.25
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 162.99
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 150.76
Futures close Jan-2004 (Rs) 462.05
Futures close Feb-2004 (Rs) 467.65
Futures close Mar-2004 (Rs) 0.00
Number of up/down moves 4/1

Tata Motors registered an increase in its stock price by about 6 per cent last week. Volumes recorded an increase of 8 per cent.

Tata Motors plans to seek approval from shareholders to raise limits of foreign institutional investors to 35 per cent of its paid-up capital.

Market players point out that the move may be taken positively by shareholders. The price at which FIIs will buy the stake is crucial. But since the stock has gained significantly in the recent rally, the price will be attractive.

CIPLA
Last week's close (Rs) 1396.58
Prev. week's close (Rs) 1267.03
Week's high (Rs) 1403.25
Week's low (Rs) 1256.10
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 37.19
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 17.26
Futures close Jan-2004 (Rs) 1406.95
Futures close Feb-2004 (Rs) 1420.35
Futures close Mar-2004 (Rs) 0.00
Number of up/down moves 4/1

Cipla was among the stocks to climb to a 52-week high last week. Talks of the pharma major launching CFC-free inhalers in Europe is helping to build momentum at the counter, say market watchers.

The uptrend witnessed in the pharma sector in general has also helped the stock's fortunes. The markets have been anticipating the launch of non-CFC inhalers from the company for a long time now.

According to analysts, the company has plans to export its CF-free inhalers, especially to Europe.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
Last week's close (Rs) 585.45
Prev. week's close (Rs) 528.43
Week's high (Rs) 589.30
Week's low (Rs) 527.25
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 682.52
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 351.36
Futures close Jan-2004 (Rs) 590.75
Futures close Feb-2004 (Rs) 596.75
Futures close Mar-2004 (Rs) 0.00
Number of up/down moves 4/1

RIL recorded an increase of 11 per cent last week in a market that moved up significantly. Volumes, too, charged ahead to record an increase of 94 per cent at the bourses.

The stock made an all-time high mid last week at Rs 579.50. Market players say both funds and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been attracted to the counter.

FIIs in particular are said be very active at the counter. A 'buy' has been assigned to the scrip by a few foreign research houses at these levels. The stock is said to have a lot of steam left.

Analysts are very optimistic on the company's petrochemicals segments and RIL is expected to benefit significantly from the revival in global petrochem cycle. Reliance's oil exploration is also a positive story.

TATA POWER
Last week's close (Rs) 329.18
Prev. week's close (Rs) 288.10
Week's high (Rs) 331.00
Week's low (Rs) 299.63
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 59.53
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 47.02
Futures close Jan-2004 (Rs) 333.05
Futures close Feb-2004 (Rs) 333.60
Futures close Mar-2004 (Rs) 0.00
Number of up/down moves 5/0

Tata Power gained close to 15 per cent last week, recording an all-time high of Rs 318.50 at the bourses. Volumes on the counter recorded a 26 per cent jump week-on-week.

The counter has recently witnessed hectic buying activity. Market players point out that major reforms in the power sector is driving the scrip to new highs.

The Electricity Act is what is lending optimism to the sector. The Act has made distribution a licensed activity, enabling the entry of private players. Generation companies can thus sell power to whomsoever they choose to.

TATA STEEL
Last week's close (Rs) 451.05
Prev. week's close (Rs) 411.45
Week's high (Rs) 456.95
Week's low (Rs) 405.58
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 396.71
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 364.85
Futures close Jan-2004 (Rs) 457.30
Futures close Feb-2004 (Rs) 460.90
Futures close Mar-2004 (Rs) 0.00
Number of up/down moves 4/1

Tata Steel recorded a 10 per cent increase in its stock price last week. Volumes increased by about 9 per cent.

Steel scrips as a whole have seen significant gains in recent times on the back of a strong revival in demand for steel from huge infrastructure projects in domestic as well as international markets.

Analysts maintain that the outlook for steel stocks remains strong both on the demand and price fronts. Demand for steel has gone up in the past couple of years and is expected to grow at 7 per cent CAGR (compounded annual growth rate).

Steel exports, too, have grown at 23.5 per cent CAGR for this year. Increase in both production and consumption of steel will drive the companies stocks further.

Stock of the week

GAIL
Last week's close (Rs) 284.73
Prev. week's close (Rs) 219.43
Week's high (Rs) 289.83
Week's low (Rs) 229.38
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 278.36
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 100.36
Futures close Jan-2004 (Rs) 286.20
Futures close Feb-2004 (Rs) 289.05
Futures close Mar-2004 (Rs) 296.10
Number of up/down moves 5/0

GAIL gained close to 30 per cent last week, following reports that the government is set to sell off 10 per cent equity of the company along with that of ONGC.

The sale is expected to be completed before March 31, 2004. This will be followed by the sale of cross-holdings by oil companies.

According to Ram Naik, minister of petroleum and natural gas, the basic purpose of selling cross-holding equity is to raise money for future investments by these oil companies, which would take place only in phases. The government has a 67 per cent stake in GAIL.

RECAP: EICHER MOTORS
The scrip continued its solid run at the bourses, clocking a 12.85 per cent gain to close last week at Rs 251.5.

Stock to watch

TVS MOTORS
Last week's close (Rs) 116.20
Prev. week's close (Rs) 114.40
Week's high (Rs) 118.85
Week's low (Rs) 98.55
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 13.82
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 4.01
Futures close NT
Number of up/down moves 3/2

TVS Motors has been gaining ground at the bourses, despite posting poor sales in December, 2003. According to scrip watchers, hopes of strong sales in January have enhanced the sentiment at the counter. The counter also witnessed huge volumes last week.

Analysts expect the company to record improved sales from January, 2004, on the back of new launches. It proposes to launch its new hi-tech, four-stroke motorcycle, TVS Centra, later this month.

An upgraded version of TVS Victor is also expected to hit the markets during the year. TVS Motors reported a 5 per cent fall in overall vehicle sales to 84,306 units from 88,682 units in December, 2002.

RECAP: INFOSYS
The scrip was up 4.53 per cent to close last week at Rs 5,669.63.

Mid-cap mover

ALSTOM INDIA
Last week's close (Rs) 62.45
Prev. week's close (Rs) 88.40
Week's high (Rs) 104.00
Week's low (Rs) 60.00
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 2.29
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 0.55
Futures close NT
Number of up/down moves 1/4

Alstom India tanked more than 30 per cent at the bourses last week, after the company announced on Tuesday that it has received a bid from French state-owned power utility player Areva for the purchase of its transmission and distribution division.

The deal is said to be valued at 22.31 million euros (Rs 127 crore). The offer encompasses T&D operations contained within Alstom and Alstom Projects in India.

Alstom will have to bear all the cost of transfer of operations to Areva, which has to be completed by December 31, 2004. The scrip plummeted on Wednesday following the news, hitting the 20 per cent lower band.

RECAP: IVRCL INFRASTRUCTURE
The stock advanced 5.16 per cent last week to settle at Rs 161.20.

Small-cap mover

KREBS BIOCHEM
Last week's close (Rs) 273.20
Prev. week's close (Rs) 217.65
Week's high (Rs) 276.00
Week's low (Rs) 227.00
Last week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 1.22
Prev. week's ave. daily turnover (Rs cr) 0.43
Futures close NT
Number of up/down moves 5/0

Krebs Biochem moved up at the bourses last week on reports that the company has received approval from US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for Pseudophedrine and I-Ephedrine products manufactured at its Nellore unit.

The Hyderabad-based Rs 120-crore bulk actives manufacturer has been exporting these products to the US market for the past several years.

The USFDA approval will enable the company to supply these products for use in drugs meant for the prescription market in US. Of the Rs 60-crore sales that the company posted in the first half of the current fiscal, about Rs 35 crore came from these two products.

RECAP: CG AUTO GEARs
The scrip closed last week at Rs 22.15, down 2.42 per cent from its previous weekend close.

Week's closing is the average closing price on NSE and BSE on Friday. Weekly high is the average higher of NSE and BSE prices during the week. Week's low is the average lower of NSE and BSE prices. Turnover is based on volumes in both BSE and NSE. NT: Not traded. NA: Not applicable. (Data compiled by BS Research Bureau)