India may lose its dominant position as the leading rice exporter next year owing to less than normal rainfall this year, the United Stated Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast in its latest report.
However, the country is still expected to be a major exporter. Additionally, with global trade forecast to expand year-to-year and lower exportable supplies in India due to a smaller crop and lower stocks, it is expected that in 2003 Thailand and Vietnam will bounce back as rice exporters. However, exports from Pakistan will continue to lag owing to a lack of exportable supplies.
In 2002, India has become a major rice supplier, accounting for 22 per cent of total global exports, up from 14 per cent the previous year. In contrast, other major exporters - Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan - have lost market share and are estimated to account for only 44 per cent of total global exports in 2002, down from 55 per cent the previous year.
India has been competing one-on-one with Thailand in major parboiled markets, such as South Africa and Nigeria. Vietnam also competes with India and has lost market-share in price-conscious markets, like Indonesia.
Pakistan has been able to hold on to its high-quality basmati markets during the first two quarters of 2002, but shortage of coarse white rice has allowed India to increase market share in key regions like south-east Asia and Africa.
USDA has said that India
