Sopa estimates not in sync, feel experts

Soybean kharif 2005 crop is likely to be about 61.26 lakh tonne, compared with 58.51 lakh tonne last year, according to the estimates released by the Soybean Processors Association of India (Sopa).

However, experts consider Sopa estimates out of sync. "It is very much like the estimates released last year when they suggested output at 75 lakh tonnes and then later brought it down to 58.5 lakh tonnes. Similar case is expected this time around," said J S Chauhan, director at Indore-based National Research Centre for Soybean.

As per the Sopa estimates, kharif soybean acreage is about 76.72 lakh hectare, compared with 72.08 lakh hectare last year. Despite the rise in acreage, the crop output, however, is unlikely to rise significantly following lower estimated yield at 799 kg per hectare compared with 812 kg last year.

Chauhan estimates kharif acreage to be about 69.8-70 lakh hectares, yield between 650-700 kg per hectare and total crop output about 55 lakh tonnes.

Soybean kharif sowing was delayed largely due to late onset of south-west monsoon and intermittent rains in most of soybean-growing regions, especially western Madhya Pradesh. This, experts say has adversely affected the yield this year.

India's soybean yield already is one of the poorest in the world at 1 tonne per hectare and this year it is likely to be lower, agricultural experts said, with some considering it to be lower than 700 kg per hectare.

Bean prices are likely to go down as market takes into account SOPA estimates"�which are higher than expectation"�as physical demand is likely to fall. Bean demand is lower internationally, despite good crops in China and US, following fear of bird flu.