Sowing likely to pick up as rains ease

MONSOON WATCH

After clocking in 20 per cent excess rainfall till the first week of July, the monsoon may remain subdued in most areas in the next few days, allowing sowing operations to gather further momentum. The planting of most kharif crops, barring paddy, is already ahead of last year's corresponding positions.

Going by the current trends, the acreage under cotton and oilseed crops may expand this year, reflecting growers' anticipation of good returns in view of high ruling prices. The same is true also of pulses like tur (arhar) and moong which have good local demand but limited scope for imports.

Water availability in the country's major reservoirs is exceptionally comfortable with the total storage being 65 per cent above the long-period average (normal) for this stage. This augers well for irrigation, hydel power production and other uses. Water inflows are good in most dams thanks to copious rainfall in their catchment areas. The Tamil Nadu government has, consequently, decided to begin releasing water from the Mettur dam from July 25 to facilitate the "samba" crop cultivation in the Cauvery delta.

The cumulative monsoon rainfall between June 1 and July 4 has been 20 per cent above normal. Only 5 of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions have recorded deficient rainfall. However, the active monsoon belt is now shifting to the Himalayan foothills and the north-eastern region. As a result, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected only subdued rainfall activity in the next 3 to 4 days over most parts of the country, except coastal Orissa, the north-eastern states and the Himalayan region which could witness isolated heavy falls. But fairly widespread rainfall is predicted after July 15 in the Gangetic plains, the north-east and the peninsula.

Indeed, thanks to ample rainfall, the overall hydrological scenario is fairly reassuring. Total water stored in the 78 major reservoirs regularly monitored by the Central Water Commission was 38.225 billion cubic metres (BCM) on July 5. This is 16 per cent more than last year's storage and a whopping 65 per cent above the normal level for this date. While 61 of these dams are more than 80 per cent full, only two have indicated no live storage. These are Sriramsagar in Andhra Pradesh and Kangsabati in West Bengal.

Going by the river basins, the reservoirs in the Sabarmati basin, pounded with some of the heaviest showers, have already accumulated 0.268 BCM water, which is a whopping 325 per cent above the normal storage of 0.063 BCM at this time of the season (see chart). Water storage in the Krishna basin, too, is 131 per cent above normal while that in the Indus basin is 110 per cent above normal.

Only 3 of the country's 12 broad river basins have reported below normal water storage. Of these, dams on the rivers of Kutch have significantly below normal storage, with the overall deficiency being nearly 60 per cent. The others are marginal cases, with the deficiency being 11 per cent in the Tapi basin and just 0.3 per cent in the dams over the Mahanadi and the adjoining east flowing rivers.

The latest crop sowing trends, reported by the states to Krishi Bhawan on July 6, indicate that paddy sowing is lagging behind last year's corresponding level by some 1.7 lakh hectares. But, the pace is said to have picked up after the recent widespread wet spell. Coarse cereals, on the other hand, have already been seeded on over 60.77 lakh hectares, against 58.4 lakh hectares in the same period last season. Bajra and jowar have been the major gainers in terms of area while the sowing of maize has been relatively low so far.

Among the commercial crops, cotton and oilseeds, notably groundnut and soyabean, seem to be the farmers' favourites. Cotton has already been planted on nearly 60 lakh hectares, against 37 lakh hectares last year. Of this, over 23 lakh hectares have been planted with insect-protected transgenic Bt cotton seeds, reflecting the growing popularity of transgenic cotton that helps cut costs by reducing the need for pesticide sprays.

The area under coverage with oilseed crops is higher this year than the corresponding positions in previous two years. While groundnut acreage exceeds last year's corresponding level by 20 per cent, that of soyabean is up by 60 per cent despite belated onset of the sowing season due to the late arrival of the monsoon in Madhya Pradesh.

Sugarcane acreage, sown till date, is reckoned at 45 lakh hectares, about a lakh hectares less than last year, as many growers feel that the sugar factories, weighed down by mounting inventories, might be reluctant to crush all the available cane in the next season.