Sensex gains 89 pts, Nifty holds 17,350 as RBI hikes repo rate by 50 bps
CLOSING BELL: While an in-line repo rate hike of 50 basis points gave ammunition to the bulls, bears tried to drag the indices as inflation projections were maintained for fiscal 2022-23 (FY23)
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Expert Take | Expect Monetary Policy stance to remain conservative for a while
Recent price correction in commodities though positive needs to be considered alongside currency market dynamics and would be a key variable to watch with respect to a turn in the rate cycle.
Views by: Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CIO-Fixed Income, SBI Mutual Fund
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COMMENT ON RBI POLICY: Ritika Chhabra, Prabhudas Lilladher
Markets were expecting a rate hike between 35-50 bps, so the RBI hike of 50 bps is on the higher side of the expectations. The RBI emphasized that it remains committed to the withdrawal of the liquidity to the contain the inflation. However, the governor did mention that the signs of moderation in inflation are emerging in form of ease in metals and food commodities and inflation is expected to be within the tolerance limit at 5.8% by Q4FY23. There was no forward guidance on the rate trajectory going forward, however, we believe that with much of the front loading behind us and oil prices also easing, RBI will go for a 15bps - 25bps hike in the next MPC meeting.
Views expressed by Ritika Chhabra- Economic and Quant Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher
Expert View on RBI Policy: Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global
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Expert on RBI policy: Expect realty to be affected, while financials will benefit
50bps repo rate hike to 5.4% by the RBI makes the policy rate is the highest since Aug’19. On the positive note, maintaining the real GDP growth forecast of 7.2% for FY23 is liked by street. It seems to be more worried about external global factors this time, which has weakened INR recently. The 3rd consecutive rate hike by RBI since May’22 cumulatively 140 bps in its effort to contain inflation would certainly increase cost of borrowing and would impact few consumer sectors. We expect real estate sector to remain most affected, while financial sector would be benefitted with the likely NIM expansion with higher spread.
Views expressed by Mr. Mitul Shah, Head of Research at Reliance Securities
Expert Take | RBI Policy is neutral for debt and equity markets but positive for rupee
At the same time, given the current subdued global growth outlook, the RBI is likely to slow down the policy rate normalization from this point onwards. Our assessment suggests that the market is currently factoring in the peak repo rate at 6% in this cycle and the medium term inflation in the range of 5 to 5.2%.
We have similar view on the rate front but we feel that the softening of inflation in the early part of the next financial year can be substantially more than what is being currently factored in. The measures are neutral for debt and equity markets but positive for rupee
Views by: Sujan Hajra - Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers
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First Published: Aug 05 2022 | 8:06 AM IST