Study on disparity in cotton estimates

Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IASRI) is carrying out a study to find out the reasons for disparity in cotton estimates of government officials and traders. A survey in this regard is being conducted in five districts each of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. The report of the study will be released in 2008.

Cotton traders have complained that the disparity in the estimates causes confusion and it becomes difficult for them to plan their future moves.

A senior IASRI official said that the study, which is being funded by the Union agriculture ministry, will be carried out by a panel of seven experts.

"The study will review the existing methods used by the government officials and traders, and identify the different factors responsible for the disparity. The study will also suggest the ways and means for improving the reliability of estimates," the official said.

The panel will include Tauqueer Ahmad, HVL Bathla, Anil Rai, Prachi Misra Sahoo, AK Gupta, VK Jain and DV Mhadgut, all senior scientists and experts on cotton. DV Mhadgut is a senior scientist from Central Institute for Research on Cotton Technology (CIRCOT), Mumbai. An Ahmedabad-based cotton trader said that they collected data from markets and farmers as they were in constant touch with them. "We also carry out our own surveys periodically. Our estimation of weather changes and their effects on the crop is faster than the government's," he added.

Recently, the traders and the government figures on cotton exports differed substantially. While the government estimated the exports to be at 55 lakh bales (170 kg each), the traders estimated it to be between 60 and 70 lakh bales.

Similarly, in the case of cotton crop, while the Union textiles ministry put the figure at 3.25 crore bales, the traders estimated it to be between 3-3.10 crore bales. The traders' estimate on the cotton crop was same as that of the International Cotton Advisory Committee.