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Cotton sowing might dip by up to 15 per cent in the coming sowing season, as farmers were not satisfied with the price they got last year, says a study by the department of agricultural economics of Junagadh Agricultural University.
A forecast report was prepared by the university after analysis of market trends, under a project commissioned by the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, an institute established by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research in 1991.
The study suggests the area under cotton across the country increased to 12.65 million hectares in 2014-15 from 11.69 mn ha in 2013-14. The crop is estimated to be sown on 10.7 mn ha in 2015-16.
Quoting the latest official estimates, the study mentions that cotton output in India is expected to be 35.3 mn bales (a bale is 170 kg) this year from 35.9 mn last year.
The price of raw cotton (kapas) declined to around Rs 800 per 20 kg in December 2014 in various markets. It had revived to around Rs 900 per 20 kg after April 2015, on estimates that output for 2014-15 would be around 35 mn bales. The price is presently Rs 900-940 per 20 kg. On an analysis of market trends, JAU has forecast the price of raw cotton from November 2015 to February 2016 in the range of Rs 860-960 per 20 kg.
Cotton shipments from India has been falling year-on-year and in 2014-15, will be less than seven mn bales, as against 11.2 mn bales in 2013-14. In the ensuing season, chances of a rise in export is minimal, with high global stockpiles.
