Sugar production in India, the world's second biggest producer and largest consumer, could decline by 5% to 24.5 million tonne in 2012-13, according to the International Sugar Organisation (ISO).
"Our understanding is that India's sugar production may fall marginally from 25.8 million tonne this year," ISO Senior Economist, Sergey Gudoshnikoy told reporters on the sidelines of the 41st session of the International Sugar Council (ISC) here.
The cyclic nature of production and building cane arrears could affect sugar production next year, he said, adding that production would be comfortable to meet the domestic demand.
The three-day session will conclude on April 26. Asked if India would turn net importer in view of a drop in production, Gudoshnikoy said the country would still have 1.5-2 million tonne of surplus sugar for export.
In the 2011-12 marketing year that started from October, ISO forecasted India's sugar output at 25.8 million tonne.
The forecast is however higher than the Indian government projection of 25.2 million tonne and slighly lower than domestic industry's estimate of 26 million tonne for 2011-12.
However, the domestic sugar cooperative industry body National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) Managing Director Vinay Kumar said, "Based on current sowing, sugar production in 2012-13 would touch 25 million tonnes."
Whereas private sugar industry body Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) Director General Abinash Verma said that the country will have surplus sugar next year. He, however, said it was too early to estimate the exact production figure.
According to official data, Indian farmers have planted sugarcane on 4.41 million hectares so far in 2012-13, as compared to 4.32 million hectares year-ago.
Higher area coverage has been reported from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
