An estimated fall in production may lead to an appreciation in prices of black pepper by the second half of the current year. The latest estimates from the top producing states, Karnataka and Kerala, indicate an all-India output of 37,000 tonnes, 26 per cent less from the normal output of 50,000 tonnes.
The current summer heat and absence of rain since the last week of December have hit the pepper plantations in all major producing centres across Kerala. The market expects a price tag of Rs 18,000-20,000 a quintal in the second half of this year. The current price is Rs 12,600-13,100 a quintal.
In Karnataka, where harvesting has begun, total production will be around 16,000-18,000 tonnes against 25,000 tonnes last season and Kerala, where 70 per cent of the harvesting is over, is estimated to have an output of 10,000-12,000 tonnes against a normal crop size of 20,000 tonnes. Tamil Nadu will have 5,000 tonnes and 2,000 tonnes will be produced from the rest of India, leading to a national production of 37,000 tonnes.
Hence a sharp hike in prices is on the anvil. The market currently expects a supply crunch after April since farmers and traders are having very thin stock. According to top dealers of Idukki and Wynad districts, the two major areas of cultivation, the market is poised for a huge increase in prices similar to that in 1996-97 season as the carryover stock is too low at present.
The current scenario is due to low output since the last four-five years. The market did not feel a supply crunch for the last few years as it had ample carryover stock.
