Mudar Patherya goes public with his admiration for Mayawati, asks questions to Chidambaram and advises investors.
Letter 1 Dear Mayawati Mausi
I have been your admirer in private for reasons I am about to make public:
I admire you because you have pulled off the biggest bear act in a bull market and lived to sunaao the daastaan
I admire you for being the most influential research analyst in India for while we were all writing report after report that the sugar industry was destined for sustainable growth without even as much as a cumulus on the horizon, you quietly pulled the carpet from under our feet "� with a single flick of your bejeweled finger
I admire you because you have demonstrated how far a daughter of a Telecom Department clerk in Dilli can go, taking sweeping decisions of commercial seriousness without understanding even the 'e' of economics
I admire you because in a liberalized India there are scant opportunities for politicians to bring industrialists to do ji huzoori at your pagdandi within months of taking over; you have used the good old masla of cane price to spike the sales of hair dye sochiye madamji sochiye! all across Uttar Pradesh
I admire you because each one of us who had scoffed when taught case studies of raw material prices being higher than commodity selling prices "� kya sir, aisa bhi kabhi ho sakta hai "� are suddenly, thanks only to you, developing a deep respect for their wizened professors
I admire you because by raising / maintaining (jo bhi kahiye) cane prices at unrealistic levels, the farmer will perish one way or the other but in this tamasha you can always claim that you tried to do their bhalaa and collect the votes while the millwaley can be dismissed as the real chors who never paid farmers "� and who will ever know the truth?
I admire you because decision is decision, no review, no looking back even as the other state governments sheepishly bought out their erasers bas, Basanti jo bol di so bol di, haan!
I admire you because you emerged from the backalleys of North India and rather than take the rest of your erstwhile neighbourhood to where you are now firmly perched, you are doing what few people in your position would have dared "� take the industrialists of your state to the backalleys instead!
Ever your bhakt, Mudar
Letter 2 Dear Uncle PC,
I have some questions to ask of you as Finance Minister.
Is there going to be a rule of globalisation for all businesses in India and a rule of localization for sugar?
Is there going to be a sham by which we can go on referring to the sugar industry as decontrolled (or near there) when politicians in a state like Uttar Pradesh can catch an industrialist by the jugular whenever he (or she!) comes to power?
Is there going to be one price for cane that a miller must pay in one state and a significantly higher price that another miller must pay in another state even as sugar realizations are more or less the same across the country?
Is there going to be a regime where cane prices must keep going up, up and up even as sugar prices are free to go anywhere?
Is there going to be a scenario where one arm of the hukoomat (state) dictates ridiculously high prices that millers must pay farmers for their cane and another arm of the hukoomat (centre) keeps fixing the leaks with reliefs on interest, reliefs on export, reliefs on this, reliefs on that?
Is there going to be a scenario where an entire sector looks at an encouraging state policy, announces an expansion, mobilizes funds, invests in assets and then hey presto, someone moves residence into Lucknow, all erstwhile commitments are fed into the shredder, incentives revoked and to hell with sunvaayi about public money going down the drain?
Is there going to be a scenario where a politician will say 'The raw material price for the sugar industry will be what my mizaaz dictates at 7.49 am tomorrow' or will it be something that is based on a considered method remunerative for farmers and affordable for millers?
Is there going to be a scenario where the decision of a politician (your tribe, different colour) results in loans being defaulted upon, the health of banks compromised and a national price needing to be paid for the perceived benefit of one party and one stakeholder community in one state?
Is there going to be someone to drive the message that we have seen enough of this nonsense where one politician raises cane prices, another raises it even further, the millers bleed, the farmers don't get paid, less cane is planted, there is less sugar in the country, the consumer has to pay a significantly higher price and yet...and yet, nothing is ever done about it?
Is there someone who will explain that a sharp increase in cane price can disturb the entire food basket pricing because when you have a disproportionately high price for cane, you have farmers shifting into it from other cash crops, you have relative declines in the production of those other crops, you have increases in their price ...and the problem of one product becomes a headache for various others?
Regards MP (not your kind!)
Letter 3 Dear investor bhai-bandhu,
I have a tip for you.
Buy into sugar stocks if you don't care much about reading stock prices for the next six months
Buy into sugar stocks because there is blood on the fields of Uttar Pradesh
Buy into sugar stocks because farmers are likely to plant less cane in 2008-09 and since there will be less of ratoon to go around, the cane crop may decline again in 2009-10; there will be a corresponding increase in sugar realizations.
Buy into sugar stocks because the next price rebound "� sugar, not shares! "� could well be sharper what we have seen in the past
Buy into sugar stocks because once the sugar drain is plugged you will see a lot more de-risking in the balance sheets through ethanol and co-generation
Buy into sugar stocks because nobody wants anything to do with them.
Regards Mudar
Mudar's disclosure: He voted for Congress in the last elections, is not a member of the Bahujan Samaj party or a shareholder in any sugar company. He is presently redeeming his sins (stock market greed included!) on a pilgrimage, so may take a while to respond at mudar@trisyscom.com
