Global tea shortage may be headed for an unprecedented level of 140 million kg, up from the earlier anticipated 100 million kg.
The deficit in Africa and Sri Lanka stands at 70 million kg, while India is likely to end the year with a shortage of 50 million kg. Factoring in a pipeline shortage of 25 million kg for India at the beginning of the season earlier this year, the industry is staring at a shortage of a little more than 140 million kg.
According to statistics, during January-September, world tea production stood at 1,275.5 million kg, down by about 89 million kg. India’s tea production till September had dipped by 10 million kg. However, industry representatives pointed out that exports were likely to end the year higher by 6 million kg. “If we take a production figure of 965 million kg and an annual consumption increase by 30 million kg, then we have a shortage of about 50 million kg. Add to it a pipeline deficit of 25 million kg from the opening of the season and we have a shortfall of 75 million kg,” they said.
Prices were currently higher by about Rs 30 a kg in the domestic market. Good Assam tea was hovering around Rs 140 a kg compared to Rs 110 a kg same time last year. Industry sources also said that the weather had suddenly gone dry and it was likely the season could close by the second or third week of December against a normal December-end. The industry experts also do not expect that shortfall across the world could be made up for at the moment.
Given the current scenario, expectations for the next season are running high. The industry expects prices to appreciate by another Rs 30 a kg in the new season. For the first time, the shortage was across tea producing countries.
