The bet is on NRIs pumping in cash

The refrain on the street is that non-resident Indian (NRI) inflows into the local markets will be much higher than last year.

This is on the bet that the resurgent equity markets in India will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the increased inflows into emerging markets.

In fact, one segment of participants says that foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows may not be as high as last year and that we may see the equity markets being flush with NRI money.

Says a fund manager from a domestic mutual fund, "NRI inflows may jump up this year, but the asset which attracts their attention most is still not certain."

He adds that real estate is one asset that may see activity but with the kind of returns that our equity markets gave last year, we may just about see a shift in flows.

The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) index rose by almost 73 per cent in 2003 and even if it shows half that growth, it still is very attractive, he says.

One strong indication of the NRI interest in the Indian equity markets is the interest shown by the non-residnet Indian fraternity at the the Pravasi Bharatiya Samaroh for NRIs held in the capital for the second year running.

It may not have attracted the same numbers as it had last year but sources say that enough interest was evinced by those present in the Indian stock markets to get hopes high that the monies will flow into the capital markets.

In fact, domestic brokerages and mutual funds are said to be selling the Indian story quite aggressively.

Non-resident Indian inflows have been on the upswing with 2003 seeing NRI investment as part of the total foreign direct investment approved, more than doubling.

Reports suggest that in 2003, it was close to 10 per cent compared with 3.2 per cent in 2002 and barely 2.2 per cent in 2001.

The total NRI investment out of the total FDI approved since January 1991 to December 2003 was around 3.5 per cent.

Players indicate that one reason that the equity story is attracting the NRIs is that other traditional investment avenues are not giving the same kind of returns that they used to.

Also, the world's perspective of India has changed and the economy is looking very healthy.

This had led to more than $7.5 billion of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) inflows in 2003 with almost $6.7 billion in the equity markets.

Sentiments are very positive and the NRI wants to be a part of the great Indian party that is unfolding.