 "Mudar Patherya")
There is more money to be made in the scientific sifting of quarterly numbers than in most things people do to earn and pay their rent on earth.
Over the past month, my trawling through the business papers has generated the following leads, which I am sharing with you. If you strike oil (sorry, not oil any longer) investing in these, wire me my commission (books incidentally generate the highest return on investment in case you needed a nudge); in case some bolt in the investment engine goes into orbit, remember that this column is adequately protected with a disclaimer.
PTC India Financial Services: This power infrastructure financing company might just emerge the non-white horse in the stock market sweepstakes. The company lends and invests selectively in power projects; over the years, it has moderated risk by graduating to renewable energy projects that generate a higher internal rate of return due to higher project certainty, fewer environmental clearances and shorter project cycles. The numbers validate the business model: a pre-tax profit of Rs 261 crore in the second quarter were a dream (equity Rs 562 crore); the half-to-half post-tax numbers have virtually trebled to Rs 273 crore. With the government's focus likely to graduate India into one of the fastest growing renewable energy markets in the world, this company might emerge the unexpected sectoral proxy.
TAKE Solutions: The first disclaimer is that there has been a bottom line decline in the last quarter, but when you compare the first half of the current financial year with the first half of the previous year, oh what a story! The earnings before depreciation, amortisation and deferred taxes, or EBDT, (after other income) have grown from Rs 38 crore to Rs 80 crore; other income has more than quadrupled to Rs 18.70 crore; equity remained unchanged at Rs 12 crore. I have a slightly different take (ah, the pun!): the company increased Rs 140 crore in top line across the two halves and added Rs 42 crore in EBDT. Now that's some business model.
HEG Limited: I have this vicarious gambler's urge of trying to second-guess a stock's bottom; each quarter I study, HEG's results to check if the worst is indeed over for this graphite electrode company servicing the needs of the global steel sector. It must be said, here and now: it must say something about a company when virtually all its downstream customers are bleeding, but it continues to make money.
This is where it gets interesting: A net loss of Rs 9 crore in the first quarter of the current year has transformed into a Rs 15.48-crore profit in the second. Interest cover at around 3x is not what the doctor would have prescribed, but remember this is the worst phase of the global steel sector in decades. And here comes another twist; top line declined from Rs 668 crore in the first half of 2014-15 to Rs 489 crore in the first half of the current financial year. Interest outflow should have exploded (the company taking refuge in loans to patch overheads), but here the reverse has transpired - interest costs declined from Rs 37 crore to Rs 33 crore (possibly lower working capital outlay).
I will be tracking these companies closely. You do, too.
The author is a stock market writer, tracking corporate earnings and investor psychology to gauge where markets are not headed
