A year ago, the rupee was down to 66 against the dollar. The current account deficit (CAD) was running at over four per cent of GDP. The Nifty was trading at 5,700. India's forex reserves were down to $275 billion. Every indicator has improved in the past 12 months.
The rupee has strengthened to 60-61. The CAD has dropped below two per cent of GDP. The international price of crude oil has eased due to expectations of slow growth. Stringent controls have cut down on the legal import of gold (illegal is another matter). Forex reserves have climbed back to above $318 billion. The continuous flow of FII funds has been buttressed by confidence from local retail investors. The Nifty is up above 8,000 and the rupee's strengthening has given windfall returns to FIIs.
This sort of trending movement can only be played one way. The trader must buy and hold with a trailing stop loss. Every so often, there will be a spurt of profit-booking and then, the trader will have to take a call on how much he is prepared to lose in temporary trend reversal. He also has to develop a perspective on what is likely to be a long-term reversal. The market is running far above "normal" indicators like a 200-Day Moving Average.
Where the stop loss is set is mainly a question of the trader's time frame and time frame is dictated by risk-appetite: The longer the time frame, the greater the chances of a loss on a trend reversal. How much is the trader prepared to lose?
This is the purely technical perspective. A position trader may also want to factor in potential global news flow that could trigger sentiment reversals. Obviously, random terrorist violence or large scale natural disasters would be bearish. But those are not at all predictable.
At the other end of the predictability scale, macro-economic numbers are released regularly, and so are quarterly earnings reports and guidances. Various central banks also take key decisions regarding money supply. There is bound to be trading volatility around sessions when these numbers are released.
In these cases, the trader can build scenarios based on consensus expectations, upside surprises and downside surprises. Obviously an experienced trader will widen stop losses and keep extra margin on hand if he's decided to hold positions through such an event.
There are other news events, which are not as low probability as 9/11, or a tsunami, but not as predictable as standard macroeconomic numbers or central bank meetings. One of these is a resolution of the Ukraine crisis. As Europe heads closer to winter, this becomes more urgent.
There could be many bad outcomes if the Ukraine crisis continues. Russian gas flows to Western Europe via the Ukraine and those supplies could be disrupted if the crisis is not resolved peaceably. The EU is likely to intensify sanctions if the situation remains tense. These sanctions are already causing inflation in Russia and the Russian reaction could range from cutting off gas to EU (causing physical freezing in winter), to freezing EU funds in Russia, to further escalation of conflict.
The other situation which could lead to unpredictable consequences is the battle against the so-called Islamic State. If the IS gains more ground, it would lead to a disruption of Iraqi crude supplies. If the IS is kicked out of Iraq, the chances of crude supplies being disrupted would however, reduce. Both these situations impact crude and gas prices. These could be resolved in a beneficial fashion resulting in lower global prices. In that case, the Indian economy receives another big shot in the arm. Or, these situations could fester and get worse creating upside pressures.
The author is a technical and equity analyst
