USDA sees output down by 2.7%

IN FOCUS/ OILSEEDS

India's oilseed output in 2004-05 oil year ending September is estimated at 28.8 million tonnes, down 2.7 per cent from the previous year, a US department of agriculture (USDA) report said Monday.

The lower estimate is largely due to a decline seen in the production of soybean, rapeseed and groundnut.

India's rapeseed output is seen impacted due to prolonged cold weather late 2004, when the crop in the northern states of North Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab, was in its maturity stage.

Thus, despite overall favourable weather conditions, the USDA report has lowered its rapeseed output estimates to 6.2 million tonnes from the earlier 6.5 million.

USDA said with crop procurement underway, the cost of crushing is exceeding returns for the trading community.

"At the current prices about 750,000 tonnes of rapeseed will be carried over to the next year," the report said.

Government agencies are currently procuring rapeseed/mustard at the minimum support price of Rs 1,700 per 100 kilograms.

Mustard procurement by the National Agricultural and Cooperative and Marketing Federation has reached 1.25 million tonnes, as on April 27. The scheme is being undertaken at 525 centres in Rajasthan and Gujarat "" the largest mustard producing states in the country.

Groundnut output for the current season is now pegged at 6.5 million tonnes from the earlier estimate of 6.8 million tonnes largely due to deficient rainfall during the critical growth stages of the crop in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, the USDA report said.

However, cottonseed is likely to see an increase in output during the year due to higher acreage under hybrid and genetically modified (BT) cotton varieties and favourable weather conditions. Cottonseed output is seen at 7.73 million tonnes, against last estimates of 7.71 million.

Edible oil imports: The decline in edible oil production coupled with the rise in consumption will lead to an increase in the country's imports by 16 per cent to 5.2 million tonne in 2004-05, the USDA report said. The Indian edible oil sector, however, pegs edible oil imports for the year at 5.0 million tonne.

Palm oil is likely to dominate the edible oil import basket at 3.4 million tonne, the report said.

The share of soyoil imports is likely to increase to around 31 per cent from 18 per cent a year ago at 1.6 million tonne. This is likely due to "converging domestic prices of RBD palmolein and refined soyoil and a domestic shortfall in soft oil production," the report added.

Oilmeal exports: Indian oilmeal exports in 2004-05 are likely to decline 43 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes, led by a fall in soymeal exports, the report said.

Soymeal exports are seen declining to 1.8 million tonne from 3.3 million a year ago due to lower output and rise in domestic consumption that followed a demand revival in the broiler industry, the report said.