India’s vegetable oil import may rise 43 per cent in 2008-09 oil year (November-October) following less rains affecting oilseeds’ acreage and output.
According to the latest estimate by Dorab Mistry, director of London-based Godrej International, the country’s vegetable oil (edible and non-edible) import may touch 9 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 8.5 million tonnes. Early this year, Mistry had estimated the country’s total vegetable oil import at 8 million tonnes assuming a normal monsoon.
“My estimate of import is 8.5 million tonnes, and I believe I shall be proved right,” Mistry said.
“It is too early to say how much the consumption will rise in 2009-10. It may not rise if prices remained high as India is a price-sensitive market. Besides, per capita consumption has already registered a historic rise in 2008-09. So we should be careful while estimating a further rise in 2009-10. Though import in 2009-10 will definitely equal that of 2008-09 due to a likely shortfall in production,” he added.
BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA), however, maintained the import forecast of 8 million tonnes during the current year. If edible oil prices went up, per capita consumption would come down substantially and impact its overall import.
As on August 6, the country has witnessed an overall 25 per cent decline in rains pursuing many states to declare drought in several districts.
Oilseeds, which are sown with the onset of monsoon in June with continued sowing till first half of August, have witnessed an overall 3.5 per cent decline in acreage to 15.07 million hectares (ha) from 15.60 million ha in the corresponding period last year. Groundnut acreage was the most hit and slipped 21.54 per cent to 3.57 million ha from 4.55 million ha last year.
Although soybean acreage increased marginally to 9.37 million ha from 9.13 million ha, yet the increase is inadequate to offset the loss in other oilseed sowing.
India required an additional 750,000 tonnes of edible oil to be met through an increase in domestic production or imports. Since, domestic production has remained stagnant for the last several years, its import was likely to increase with the rise in consumption, said Mehta.
An overall fall in output would certainly increase the country’s dependence on import, said D N Pathak, director of Central Organisation for Oil Industry & Trade (COOIT).
India produces between 3.5 and 4 million tonnes of vegetable oil from its kharif crop. The combined production of vegetable oil from soybean and groundnut is less than 2 million tonnes on an average.
