Afghanistan is again at the crossroads in its turbulent history. On the one side is the proposed withdrawal of U.S. and Western forces later this year, with President Hamid Karzai playing truant by not signing the Bilateral Security Agreement, and on the other, Pakistan is waiting to pounce upon a nascent Afghan Army by letting loose the Taliban and Al Qaeda after the withdrawal of troops.
In this scenario, the process to elect Afghanistan's third president has acquired great importance. At stake is the peace and democratic fabric, which returned to Afghanistan in 2001 after a lapse of over thirty years.
Afghanistan witnessed a long fight to dislodge Soviet aggressors and a fanatic rule by the Pakistan sponsored Taliban.
With the start of the election campaign on February 2, the race has begun. It would intensify over the coming weeks which would come to an end on April 3.
Voting will take place on April 5. The long drawn out process will culminate only on May 28. Unlike India, the Afghan electoral process is slow and cumbersome.
As per the election schedule, the nominations were filed in November last year. The papers have been scrutinized for weeks. Only 11 candidates out of original 29 remain in the fray. The two-month-long election campaign began on Feb. 2 and will continue till April 3. Voting is slated for April 5 and counting would take two weeks from April 6 to April 20.
Preliminary results to be announced on April 24 and complaints can be filed from April 7 to April 27. Adjudication on complaints will be completed by May 7. The Afghanistan Independent Election Commission is scheduled to announce the results on May 14 and implement it by May 22.
As per the Afghanistan Constitution, if the leading candidate fails to register at least 50 percent of the total votes cast, a run-off vote will be taken between the first two candidates on May 28. The installation of the new President will take place only in June.
Since the Afghan Constitution doesn't allow more than two terms for a president, Karzai is not contesting.
Eleven candidates are in the field to contest for the posts of president, first vice president and second vice president. Some of them are as follows:
Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai: A highly respected economist, a former finance minister in Karzai's first cabinet, a technocrat and a visionary, Ghani belongs to the Kuchi Tribe and his brother is the Grand Chieftain of the Kuchi Council. He does not have much competition in so far as Kuchi votes are concerned. Ghani has chosen Uzbek strongman and the biggest warlord Dostum as his first running mate. This may have angered many Pushtuns who have not forgiven Dostum for the excesses against them. But Dostum being the unchallenged leader of the Uzbek and Turkmen minority, who account for 10 per cent of the population, will offset this disadvantage. Ghani has chosen former Minister of Justice Sarwar Danish, a Hazara, as his second running mate.
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah: Dr Abdullah seems to be leading the pack. A very close aide of the legendary and late Tajik leader Ahmed Shah Massoud, Dr Abdullah, an ophthalmologist by profession, gave a very tough fight to Karzai in the last elections in 2009. He refused to contest the second round as the leading candidate, and Karzai failed to get the required 50 percent votes in the first round. Abdullah and a large number of people charged Karzai of rigging the polls by misusing the official machinery.
Having lived as a refugee in India during the oppressive Taliban rule, Dr, Abdullah is supposed to enjoy the support of India. A half Pushtun himself (His father was a Tajik and mother a Pushtun), Dr.Abdullah's running mates are Engineer Mohammed Khan - a Pashtun from Ghazni Province affiliated with the Hizb-e-Islami Party of former Mujahideen President Gulbuddin Hekmatyar- and Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq, a Hazara and head of the People's Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan.
His mixed Pashtun and Tajik ancestry may also get him large support from the Jamiat-e-Islami Party. The unchallenged leader among the Shia Hazaras, Haji Mohaqiq would get the team a solid chunk of votes.
The fact that Abdullah and Mohaqeq have demonstrated an ability to raise resources for their politics is another reason why they are likely to go all the way.
Zalmai Rasool: Former foreign minister Zalmai Rasool is considered a moderate with royalist connections. Rasool has chosen Ahmad Zia Massoud - a former first vice-president and brother of the legendary Ahmad Shah Masood and son-in-law of former President Burhanuddin Rabbani, as his first running mate.
Ahmad Zia would cut into Abdullah's support base among the Jamiat Party of Tajks, the second largest ethnic tribe. Former Bamiyan Governor Habiba Surabi, an ethnic Hazara, who has been a symbol of women empowerment, is Rasool's second running mate.
Surabi can get a sizeable share from the women voters and also the Hazaras in Bamiyan highlands known as Hazarajat. Rasool is considerd the most likely candidates to finally get Karzai's backing.
Abdul Qayum Karzai: The team led by President Karzai's elder brother, Abdul Qayum Karzai, has former Mines Minister Wahidullah Shahrani as the First Vice President and former MP, Noor Akbari as Second Vice President.
Coming from the most powerful and the largest Pushtun tribe, Durrani Popalzai, Qayum is targeting the Kandahar region, the heartland of the Pushtuns. Shahrani is an Uzbek and Akbari, a Hazara.
Professor Abdus Rabb Sayyaf: Among the other formidable contenders for the top position is the former Mujahideen and ideologue Prof Abdus Rabb Sayyaf. His running mate for the First Vice President is another powerful warlord and ex-Mujahideen, Ismail Khan, a Tajik having following in the Heart area and among the Tajiks. Maulavi Abdul Wahab Irfan is his candidate for Second VP.
The views expressed in the above article are that of Mr. Gurinder Randhawa, former special correspondent of All India Radio in Kabul.
