Where does Bangladesh go from here? Elections to the 10th Parliament have been held, marred as they were by violence.
The new MPs have been sworn in. A new government has taken office. Khaleda Zia and the BNP are out in the cold and face the prospect of being there for the next 5 years unless they can force the government to agree to fresh elections under a caretaker government. This would mean more violence, especially against the minorities and further destruction of the economy.
Unless, of course, Hasina has a change of heart and calls for fresh elections and Zia agrees to contest.
Sheikh Hasina, in a post-election press briefing, said she would welcome the BNP to a dialogue, provided that the party stopped "violence" and abandoned the "militant" Jamaat. The ball was left in the BNP's court.
The BNP's reaction has been ambivalent.
First off the blocks was BNP's Senior Vice-Chairman and Zia's son Tarique Rahman, who stated in a press conference in London that there was no reason to hold a dialogue with the "illegal government" elected through "farcical polls", and "Elections under caretaker government is the only solution."
In fact, he urged the party to continue the anti-government movement "at any cost" and "pounce into action with full might."
However, contradicting him, Begum Khaleda Zia said in Dhaka that there was no solution other than talks, and that her party was ready for a dialogue anytime to resolve the prevailing political deadlock so long as the "right" atmosphere was created.
Zia flip-flopped on the Jamaat. In a reply to the BBC, Zia said that the PM could not dictate that the BNP should leave the Jamaat. However, in an interview with the New York Times on Monday night, Khaleda said: "With Jamaat, it's not a permanent alliance." When asked whether she could end the alliance, she said: "At this moment, I cannot, but when the time will come, I will see."
Meanwhile, Khaleda Zia has continued to urge the international community to speak out loud and take steps immediately in favour of reestablishing democracy and the practices of democratic norms in Bangladesh.
Ominously for Khaleda, some in the BNP are uncomfortable with the Jamaat alliance, especially after the verdicts of the war crimes trials and the recent violence. The possibility of dumping the Jamaat has been discussed behind closed doors, while the conflicting comments of both Zia and Tarique have confused BNP activists.
What Khaleda and the BNP have to reflect over is the cost to Bangladesh of her obduracy and ego and question the legitimacy of their campaign of continuous hartals and violence unleashed by the Jamaat-Shibir.
Bangladesh has won international acclaim for reducing poverty and improving health and education facilities. Life expectancy now stands at 69.2 years, higher than India's, coupled with dropping levels of infant mortality. Above all, the ready made garments sector has empowered Bangladeshi women like never before. Continued political turmoil threatens all this and more.
Moreover, Khaleda and the BNP, who are today talking about the efficacy of democracy and farcical elections, need to step back and look at their own record in the 9th Parliament. Admittedly, the AL had a brute majority, but the BNP could have functioned as a quality opposition. On the contrary, they boycotted bulk of the parliamentary sitting while continuing to take all benefits and privileges.
The parliament had 418 sittings in 19 sessions and passed 217 bills. The BNP-led opposition attended only 76 sittings and was absent from 342 sittings in the entire five years of the parliament. Khaleda's record of attending Parliament thus has been dismal.
Such democratic credentials and such obduracy does not bode well for the future of Bangladesh. Worse, the BNP does not seem to have learnt the right lessons from the elections.
The Daily Star (January 6, 2014) quoted Hamdullah Al Mehedi, general secretary of Bangladesh Labour Party, a constituent of the BNP's 18 party alliance, that "It's a reality in our politics that the number of deaths in a movement determines its success. On that count, our movement to resist the polls has been a success as at least 18 people have died so far on the polling day alone."
A BNP leader told the Daily Star that "We are planning to wage a new type of movement to ensure participation of mass people in it", and that the movement will continue ceaselessly until the fall of the government.
It seemed to have been left to the British High commissioner in Dhaka to tell Khaleda, the mood of the people. In a Twitter message, he had sought people's thoughts on the present political situation. And, he conveyed the people's strong desire for an end to the ongoing violence to Khaleda Zia.
The future of Bangladesh and its people would now depend on how seriously Khaleda Zia absorbs that message as she faces the prospect of five years in political wilderness.
If anything, it should be Khaleda that should extend an olive branch to Hasina rather than the other way around.
This is the concluding part of a three-part article on the Bangladesh elections for ANI. Part I dealt with the setting and was published on January 12, 2014. Part II dealt with the outcome and was published on January 13, 2014.
The views expressed in the above article are that of Mr. Salim Haq.
