The BNP-led 18 party alliance outrightly rejected the election schedule that called for elections on January 5, 2014.
It held the announcement a 'unilateral' move to hold a 'farcical' election without trying to reach an understanding with the opposition on the poll-time government.
It also called for a 48-hours hartal starting November 26 that was later extended till November 29 morning.
Not content with rejecting the poll schedule, the Opposition activists, led by the Jamaat and its student wing, the Islami Chattar Shibir, bombed the Election Commission offices in Rajshahi and Khulna (November 25); Bogra and Fenni (November 26) and Chittagong (November 27). At many places, Awami League offices were vandalised, rail communication disrupted and at least 18 people were reported killed in the two days of violence.
It has been obvious for some time now that Begum Khalida Zia would not participate in elections held under Sheikh Hasina. The ostensible reason of course is that such elections would not be fair.
Such an argument, however, flies in the face of logic and reason.
For one thing, Sheikh Hasina has not unilaterally done away with the constitutional provision of a neutral caretaker government. It was the highest court of the land that had struck it down as unconstitutional in May 2011.
Sheikh Hasina merely implemented it by amending the constitution suitably. The moot point is that the BNP refused to participate in deliberations for replacing the caretaker government system. Hence, for it to now call announcement of elections 'unilateral' is absurd.
Moreover, a large number of elections have been held during the tenure of the Awami League government, elections in which the AL candidates have lost.
There have been no allegations of rigging. So, how can the BNP presume that the national elections will be rigged unless, of course, it is the BNP that has the experience of rigging elections!
The real reason, however, why BNP will not want participate in elections is that Khalida has got cold feet.
Between 2010 and 2012, the popularity of the Sheikh Hasina government had severely eroded for many reasons and the BNP managed to recover a lot of lost ground. However, over the past 6 months or so, the AL seems to have got its act right and rectified several mistakes. Consequently, its popularity has increased at the cost of the BNP.
A few opinion polls tell the story.
The opinion survey carried out by the Daily Prothom Alo in September 2013 found that if elections were held then, the BNP would get 50.3% of the vote and the Awami League 36.5%. Since its earlier poll in April, the trend was a widening gap between the two parties. The Daily Star-Asia Foundation opinion survey in September 2013 showed 55% support for the BNP as against only 28% for the Awami League.
The BNP thus had a 14% advantage acording to the Prothom Alo and a 27% advantage as per the Daily Star. Whichever figure one accepts, the margin was huge and the BNP was happily placed to sweep the polls.
However, by November, the picture had changed and that too drastically. The nationwide survey on issues, messages and opinion of voters issued by the USAID, Democracy International and UKAID found that the difference between the two parties had narrowed down to just 3%. While 38% of the respondents felt that the BNP would win, 35% felt that the AL would do so. Given the trend, it is not hard to predict where the bulk of the 13% undecided voters would go.
How does one explain this huge turn-around?
One of the significant findings of the April Prothom Alo survey was that 51% of the respondents felt that the BNP should not have any alliance with the Jamaat. Instead of heeding this popular sentiment, the BNP thought it could use the Jamaat's street power while it allowed the Jamaat to take it over. As pointed out by this author in the past, the Jamaat had hijacked the BNP to serve its ends of dislocating the work of the International Crimes Tribunal. The Jamaat and Shibir cadres were in the forefront of every hartal called by the BNP, indulging in brutal violence and arson in order to disrupt the trials.
Not surprisingly, the voing public, including BNP supporters have been repulsed by the constant hartals and disruptions and especially by the naked Jamaat aggression, remniscent of its role in the 1971 genocide.
As against this, almost all opinion polls have found overwhelming support for the war crimes trials being pursued doggedly by the government. There has also been much appreciation of the AL's achievements in education, infrastructure, health services and electrification.
Unable or unwilling to free herself from the clutches of the Jamaat, Khalida's confidence has been badly eroded due to the drastic loss of popularity. She has thus developed cold feet about going to the people. Her only hope to reverse the trend is to break free of the Jamaat.
Will Khalida have the courage to do so?
The decision not to participate in the polls clearly shows that she does not.
The views expressed in the above article are that of Mr. Salim Haq.
