A new research has revealed that currently proposed climate policy pledges are an important step forward but have fallen short of 2 degrees Celsius.
The study that was conducted by a team of six European research institutions, using six different modeling tools looks into several key negotiation issues on the road from the climate summit in Lima to the one in Paris 2015.
Researcher Massimo Tavoni said that the pledges made so far lead to earlier emission peaking in many countries, with 1-1.5 degree Celsius less total warming than without these policies, but not sufficient to meet the 2 degree Celsius target.
Tavoni added that under the proposed commitments, cumulative CO2 emissions in China would be reduced by half and yet, together with those of the other Asian economies they would exceed the total emission budget compatible with 2 degree Celsius - about 1000 Gigatons CO2.
Tavoni continued that reducing emissions while limiting costs requires a significant contribution from developing countries, which could create unfair distribution of costs. Compensatory measures could address these.
The study finds that financial support in the order of 100-150 billion US-Dollar per year by 2030 could achieve efficiency and cover the total investments in low carbon technologies needed in developing countries for the 2 degree Celsius target. Fiscal revenues from instruments such as carbon taxes could also cover the clean energy investment gaps.
Tavoni mentioned that the IPCC AR5 report has clearly highlighted the level of global effort needed to stabilize the climate, but a quantitative assessment of the regional implications of post 2020 climate policies, which brings together different modeling tools was missing.
The study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
