With new notes in circulation, the growth of the economy is expected to return back to normal, according to the Economic Survey 2016-17, which was presented to the parliament today.
As per the Survey, GDP growth rate is to be fixed at 7.1 percent, keeping market prices constant during the year.
The strong growth in revenue expenditure during April-November 2016 was boosted mainly by a 23.2 per cent increase in salaries due to the implementation of the Seventh Pay Commission and a 39.5 per cent increase in the grants for creation of capital assets.
The headline inflation as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained under control for the third successive financial year. The average CPI inflation declined to 4.9 per cent in 2015-16 from 5.9 per cent in 2014-15 and stood at 4.8 per cent during April-December 2015.
The trend of negative export growth was reversed somewhat during 2016-17 (April-December), with exports growing at 0.7 per cent to US$ 198.8 billion. During 2016-17 (April-December) imports declined by 7.4 per cent to US$ 275.4 billion. The Survey says that during 2016-17 so far, the rupee has performed better than most of the other emerging market economies.
At end-September 2016, India's external debt stock stood at US$ 484.3 billion, recording a decline of US$ 0.8 billion over the level at end-March 2016. India's key debt indicators compare well with other indebted developing countries and India continues to be among the less vulnerable countries.
Agriculture sector is estimated to grow at 4.1 per cent in 2016-17 as opposed to 1.2 per cent in 2015-16; the higher growth in agriculture sector is not surprising as the monsoon rains were much better in the current year than the previous two years.
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Growth rate of the industrial sector is estimated to moderate to 5.2 per cent in 2016-17 from 7.4 per cent in 2015-16.During April-November 2016-17, a modest growth of 0.4 per cent has been observed in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
The eight core infrastructure supportive industries, viz. coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity registered a cumulative growth of 4.9 per cent during April-November 2016-17 as compared to 2.5 per cent during April-November 2015-16.
The production of refinery products, fertilizers, steel, electricity and cement increased substantially, while the production of crude oil, natural gas fell during April-November 2016-17. Coal production attained lower growth during the same period.
The performance of corporate sector (Reserve Bank of India, January 2017) highlighted that the growth of sales grew by 1.9 per cent in Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to near stagnant growth of 0.1 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17. Growth in net profit registered a remarkable growth of 16.0 per cent in Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 11.2 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17.
Service sector is estimated to grow at 8.9 per cent in 2016-17, almost the same as in 2015-16. It is the significant pick-up in public administration, defence and other services, boosted by the payouts of the Seventh Pay Commission that is estimated to push up the growth in services.
With regards to the Social Sector, the Parliament has passed the "Rights of Persons with Disabilities Act, 2016". The Act aims at securing and enhancing the rights and entitlements of Persons with Disabilities. The Act has proposed to increase the reservation in vacancies in government establishments from 3 per cent to 4 per cent for those persons with benchmark disability and high support needs.
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