Afghan society is divided on strong ethnic lines. The Pushtuns say they constitute over 40 percent of the population, but this claim is not backed by authenticity, as the last official census was held 35 years back in 1979.
The Tajiks are the largest minority with an estimate of 16 percent, followed by the Hazaras (eight percent). Uzbeks, Aimaks, Turks, Balochs and the wandering tribe of Kuchis are the other minor tribes.
Only the Uzbeks are likely to remain undivided and cornered by the team led by Ashraf Ghani, which has the nation's biggest warlord, Abdul Rashid Dostum, as his running mate.
The Pushtun, Tajik and Hazara votes are likely to be divided among various candidates.
The elections, in 2004 and 2009, have resulted in the selection of a Pushtun President, a Tajik as First Vice President and a Hazara as the Second Vice President.
This time also, major teams have a Pushtun for President with running mates from the Tajiks and the Hazaras.
But the disadvantage that Pushtuns face is the fact that they have concentration in southern and eastern Afghanistan, where the Taliban calls the shots, and this may result in a very low percentage of people coming out to cast their votes.
The main contest seems to be between the teams led by former foreign minister Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani.
The other strong candidates are Zalmai Rasool, Hidayat Amin Arsala and President Karzai's elder brother, Qayum Karzai.
Former warlord Abdus Rab Sayyaf and former defence minister Abdul Rahim Wardak may also corner a sizeable number of votes.
Most of the remaining candidates may either drop out or extend support to one of the leading contenders to have a share in the post-poll pie.
The emerging scene at the moment points towards a hung result, with none of the first three teams getting a clear verdict of over 50 percent in the first count as the Pushtun, Tajik and Hazara votes would be divided.
None of the teams can claim victory on the basis of their composition.
In this situation, Abdullah's team seems to be leading the pack - one because of the ethnic composition and, two the amount of financial resources Abdullah and Haji Mohaqiq can mobilise.
The second best team of Ashraf Ghani, at least on paper, may corner the Uzbek and Turk votes, but may lose on the largest minority Tajik votes.
Qayum Karzai's team, though resourceful and having the largest following among the majority Pushtuns, could be handicapped by the intense insurgent Taliban activity in its support base. The team also has the drawback of not having a Tajik running mate.
Rasool has the prospect of making the final only if President Karzai throws his weight behind him. His teammates do not enjoy much political clout or a constituency.
Prof Sayyaf and his team, though have sufficient financial resources, yet they can only have an advantage if they get Karzai's support.
While Abdullah and Ghani teams are likely to contest the race on their own, others may only make an impact with Karzai's backing.
Finally, the teams led by Dr. Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani are in the lead with one or two from the remaining nine in the race only if any of these is able to get Karzai on their side.
The role of the losing teams other than the first two will become most important in case the second round becomes a necessity. They will try to extract their pound of flesh by transferring their votes to the team which offers them the best reward.
In the final analysis, Karzai holds the trump card because having the benefit of the official machinery at his disposal and a big network of support he has been able to create through distribution of official patronage during his reign.
The U.S. and its Western allies are not giving any signal of preference for any particular team in order to give full play to the free democratic process.
Their only interest seems to be the signing of the proposed Bilateral Security Agreement to keep some of their troops in Afghanistan after their withdrawal at the end of 2014, once the new government is installed as Hamid Karzai has declined to sign it.
The views expressed in the above article are that of Mr. Gurinder Randhawa, former special correspondent of All India Radio in Kabul.
