With the imminent transition in Afghanistan following the presidential elections, the counting of votes for the Second Vote has commenced this week and results are likely to be announced by the end of the month.
The withdrawal of the US led NATO forces will commence from the militancy-torn Afghanistan. A Great Game is already on to control the Central Asian region including Afghanistan.
The stalemate as reflected in the first count of votes in which none of the leading candidates could get the required 50 percent of the votes polled further intensified the Game. In the first vote, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah got 44.95 percent and his closest rival, Dr. Ashraf Ghani little more than 37 percent. The second count would decide as to who will replace Hamid Karzai at the Arg Palace in Kabul.
In the new situation, which power is going to wield the maximum influence? China seems to be the leading power, among all the regional and even the world powers, to wield the strongest impact. The region has strategic priority for China because of its geographical location, vast energy sources and other economic factors. Again, for China in the new situation , the security of China's troubled western province Xinjiang, will be of major concern.
China's energy needs are multiplying with its economy growing at a break-neck pace of 9.5 percent, making it the world's second largest oil importer. China is likely to corner one-fifth of the world's growth in global energy demand in the next 20 years.
Presently, China is importing much of its energy requirements through the insecure Malacca Straits necessitating diversification of energy routes with pipelines from Kazakhstan and other Central Asian republics which the experts say are virtually floating on oil reserves.
The Pakistan-China project of building up highway and laying a gas pipeline from Xinjiang through the Karakoram, Gilgit and Baltistan and the Pak-occupied Kashmir to Pakistan's Gawadar port to get oil supplies from Iran is a part of the Chinese overall energy strategy.
Amidst all these tumultuous changes when we look at the region it is likely that the effort of China would be to set up pipelines through some countries that are not without problems or risk. Azerbaijan on the western coast of the Caspian Sea, due to its geo-physical location, political stability and modernisation seems one of the safest states in the Caspian, Caucasus and the Central Asian region open for investment.
The oil and gas pipelines to China, India, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran on the eastern and southern Asia on the one hand and going to the western states and Europe on the other, is already being referred as the 'New Silk Route' with the Central Asian republics forming the vital central link.
Many of the other goods are already passing through the region between, China and Europe. The only difference from the ancient Silk Road days is that the single dirt lane traversed by the camel caravans has today expanded into The Asian Highway network, a 1, 41,000 km long roads running across 32 countries.
China's biggest security worry in the region spreads across its western province Xinjing Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR) bordering Tajikistan, Kygyzstan and Kazakhstan.
The Muslim Turkic ethnic population of Xinjing, known as Uyghur share very close cultural and religious ties with the Central Asian people. The Uzbek and Kyrgyz militant Islamic struggles have spilled over to XUAR. There had been periodic uprisings, bomb attacks, and violent ethnic clashes in XUAR in recent past.
Chinese authorities are worried over the links they have uncovered between the Uighur separatists and terrorist groups in the Central Asian nations, particularly Kyrgyzstan. Any possibility of the fundamentalist Taliban or Al Qaeda returning to Afghanistan and the fear of the Islamic terrorist groups forming a joint front has prompted Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to cooperate with China for sharing intelligence on Islamic extremists' activities.
The violent eruption of events in Iraq and surfacing of the extremist terrorist outfits like the Al Qaeda and Islamic Sunni (ISIL)with links to other terrorist movements like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)has sent shock waves among the Chinese authorities and the Central Asian states in the region.
China has already laid some of the oil pipelines from Kazakhstan and is in the process of laying more which are susceptible to sabotage by extremists while passing through the Central Asia and XUAR.Chinese economic growth, therefore largely depends on ensuring stability and suitable environment on its western borders.
China also is wary of any possibility of drawing the United States into any border involvement in the region in response to terrorism and instability. The happenings in Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine have left the Chinese worried. The Chinese, therefore, favour the stay of some US and Western forces in Afghanistan to ensure stability as any collapse of Afghanistan would spill dangers to the Chinese western province. They have not forgotten the support of Al Qaeda and the Taliban to the Islamic extremist Uyghur when they ruled Afghanistan. Al Qaeda was alleged to be running training camps for Uyghur in Pakistan's north western region and supplying arms to the separatists in XUAR.
But, the Chinese know full well that the US and its allies have their designs on the Central Asian nations. One - to access and conveyance of the oil and mineral wealth of the region and two - reduce the Russian influence in these states.
As the oil reserves in the over-exploited Middle East are likely to last only about another 20-30 years, the next oil and gas needs of the world would depend on Central Asian states, some of which have vast untapped reserves. These nations, not being a part of the OPEC syndicate make them favourite among the energy seekers in West and the US.
On the mineral side, Kazakhstan alone is estimated to have over 70 percent of the total uranium reserves of the world. Coal, iron, copper and zinc are the other minerals supposed to be in abundance in the region.
Gurinder Randhawa, former AIR Correspondent in Afghanistan is a keen watcher of the situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia.
The views expressed are of Gurinder Randhawa.
