Asian Development Bank (ADB) stated in a latest update that India's GDP growth recovered to 1.6% in Q4 of fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ended 31 March 2021), narrowing contraction in the whole fiscal year from 8.0% estimated in April to a revised 7.3%. Then a second wave of the pandemic induced many state governments to impose strict containment measures. New COVID-19 cases daily peaked at more than 400,000 in early May, then fell to a little over 40,000 in early July. Early indicators show economic activity resuming quickly after containment measures eased. The growth projection for FY2021, downgraded from 11.0% in ADO 2021 to 10.0%, reflects large base effects. The projection for FY2022, by which time much of India's population is expected to be vaccinated, is upgraded from 7.0% to 7.5% as economic activity normalizes.
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